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Author Topic: Border Population Stats  (Read 263 times)
castlebob
RootsChat Senior
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Posts: 466


Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk


Border Population Stats
« on: Saturday 25 July 09 12:14 UTC (UK) »

Hello All,
I've read that DLW Tough estimated the Scottish Border population as being 50,000 in c1569. He also estimated the English Border counties at 120,000. My Armstrong surname is first mentioned in the early 13th C in Cumbria, then later in Roxburghshire & Dumfriesshire.
It was said that the Armstrongs could field 3,000 men in the  early16th C, although I feel that this figure may have included 'sympathetic' clans in the neighbourhood.
Assuming the 3,000 figure to be the asbsolute maximum, plus guessing at say, 8 people per family, we're looking at 375 Armstrong  families in the 16th C. Does anyone know of a known statistical formula to 'back-project' this population estimate through to the early 12th C?
Cheers
Bob
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Armstrongs of   Bedfordshire, England & Canonbie ,Scotland
Gadget
RootsChat Marquessate
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Posts: 25929


Holy Island - Pilgrims' Path


Re: Border Population Stats
« Reply #1 on: Saturday 25 July 09 12:24 UTC (UK) »

Hi Bob

There might be something in this article that you could extrapolate from. It certainly discusses comparative mortality rates (and Appendices A and B ) :

http://www.sirguillaume.com/Downloads/Old_Age-Height-Nutrition.pdf

also some further references are given.

Also, http://www.jstor.org/pss/2847399


Gadget
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Census &  BMD information Crown Copyright www.nationalarchives.gov.uk and GROS - www.scotlandspeople.gov.uk
castlebob
RootsChat Senior
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Posts: 466


Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk


Re: Border Population Stats
« Reply #2 on: Saturday 25 July 09 13:02 UTC (UK) »

Excellent, Gadget
Many thanks,
Bob
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Armstrongs of   Bedfordshire, England & Canonbie ,Scotland
mosstrooper
RootsChat Member
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Posts: 246


Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk


Re: Border Population Stats
« Reply #3 on: Sunday 26 July 09 19:54 UTC (UK) »

In 1513 England was at war with France and it was the Queen of that country who persuaded King James IV of Scotland to renew the `auld alliance' and assist the French, by invading northern England.

On the 22nd August King James of Scotland crossed the River Tweed at Coldstream entering England with an army of between 60,000 to 100,000 men who burned the fortress of Norham on Tweed and the Tillside castles of Ford and Etal. The reason King James gave for the invasion, was revenge for the murder of Robert Kerr, a Warden of the Scottish East March who had been killed in a fray by a Northumbrian called John `the Bastard' Heron in 1508.

This was just a skirmish before the Battle of Flodden on the 9th September. In the Battle of Flodden itself it is said there were 30,000 men on each side of the border armies.

You mention "Clans" there were no Clans on the Border, only Families, Clans belonged in the Highlands. The people who lived and worked on the lands belonging to these families, The Armstrongs, The Grahams, The Kerrs owed allegiance to the Family and in many cases took the name of that family,

In the 1500s and prior to that, the common people did not have 2 names, a Christian name and a second name, so were better known by descriptions such as "Jock O' the Side" or "Heron the Bastard" or "Rab the Rhymer" So if they took the protection of a powerful family, they would also take the family name.

James Kerr.
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castlebob
RootsChat Senior
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Posts: 466


Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk


Re: Border Population Stats
« Reply #4 on: Sunday 26 July 09 20:33 UTC (UK) »

I appreciate the distinction between 'family' & 'clan', James. I've seen the word clan used so often that it slips through occasionally! I agree that surnames were often adopted, particularly in Scotland. The Y-DNA project I co-admin has some  cases of this kind. 
The Records of the Parliaments of  Scotland  for 1586 (?) lists some 2,200 Christian names & surnames (many nicknames as you rightly pointed out), living in the area I'm most interested in. Some 5% of those listed  are Armstrongs.
I gather a plague decimated some 25% of the population of the region in 1349, so must have had a massive impact in slowing the growth in numbers.
I suppose a statistician would be able to make some sense of the issue.
Thanks for your input - much appreciated
Bob
« Last Edit: Sunday 02 August 09 07:51 UTC (UK) by castlebob » Logged

Armstrongs of   Bedfordshire, England & Canonbie ,Scotland
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