Author Topic: Centimorgans and Segments  (Read 1344 times)

Offline Jill Eaton

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Centimorgans and Segments
« on: Wednesday 24 January 18 13:05 GMT (UK) »
Would any experienced DNA experts/Semi-experts/or people with more knowledge than me (I'm a novice) be able to give me a realistic estimate of how many centimorgans and/or segments would count as genuine match worth chasing?

I'm sceptical that the Ancestry relationship estimate is accurate. Sometimes it seems a little over-enthusiastic.
Davis - Berkshire & London
Sutcliffe - Yorkshire & London
Harrington - Ireland and London
Fuller - Cambridgeshire and Essex
Waldron/Waldren - Devon & London
Frisby and Lee - Leicestershire
Hollingsworth - Essex
Williams - Ireland? and London
Ellis, Reed & Temple - London
Lane - ?
Surplice/Surplus - Cambridgeshire
Elwood - Cambridgeshire

Online rsel

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Re: Centimorgans and Segments
« Reply #1 on: Wednesday 24 January 18 16:54 GMT (UK) »
Would any experienced DNA experts/Semi-experts/or people with more knowledge than me (I'm a novice) be able to give me a realistic estimate of how many centimorgans and/or segments would count as genuine match worth chasing?

I'm sceptical that the Ancestry relationship estimate is accurate. Sometimes it seems a little over-enthusiastic.
I am no expert, but GedMatch talks about 7cm or larger as the basic for a good match

Richard
Sellens - Sussex
Newham - Surrey
Wellington - Dagenham, Essex
Camp - South Essex
Wren - Essex
Livermore - Essex
Wane - Essex
Fisk - Essex / Suffolk
Bailey/Bayley - Sussex
Newton - Sussex
Funnell - Sussex
Streeter - Sussex
Coates - Sussex
Maisey - Surrey

Offline Eric Hatfield

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Re: Centimorgans and Segments
« Reply #2 on: Tuesday 30 January 18 06:29 GMT (UK) »
Yes, the cutoffs used by the major companies and webpages are a good guide, and several places use about 7 cM as their cutoff. This reference gives some details .

There are two issues in this - false positives and false negatives. The more you eliminate one of these by where the cutoff is set, the more likelihood there is of the other.

False positives:

This table shows that 7 cM matches are 50% likely to be genuine and 50% likely to be by chance, while at 10 cM 90% of matches will be genuine. I am a little surprised at those numbers.

False negatives:

This table shows how likely the three main testing companies are to find (or miss) a match. First and second cousins will almost never be missed, 90% of third cousins will be identified, but only around 50% of fourth cousins and very few 5th cousins will be identified. Of course if they set their criteria lower, they would pick up a greater percentage, but also pick up more false positives. I think they have the balance about right - they try to miss few closer relatives even though this generates a few more false positives.

One answer to this is to have several relatives test. I didn't match using FTDNA or Gedmatch criteria someone who is actually a third cousin, but my cousin and aunt (who were third cousin and second cousin once removed) did match and so conformed the relationship.