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General => Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing => Topic started by: clogdancer on Wednesday 12 June 19 11:26 BST (UK)

Title: How confident should I be?
Post by: clogdancer on Wednesday 12 June 19 11:26 BST (UK)
I've got four known 4th cousin DNA matches through Ancestry, to people descended though different lines to my supposedly Gr Gr Grandfather & Gr Gr GrandMother (Anthony Maughan and Honor Loftus).
I know my Gr Gr Grandfather was called Anthony Maughan and was from the same area.
The known birthyear for my Gr Grandfather (Charles) is within a few years of his supposed siblings (Margaret & Thomas)
I cant find birth records for my Gr. Grandfather (from Ballina area, Mayo, Ireland 1861-62) and quite a lot of records around the period and area are missing.
Without hard evidence, but assuming the records these four cousins has put on Ancestry are accurate, how confident can I be that Anthony and Honor were Charles' parents?
My 4th cousin matches have shared DNA in the region 26-64 cM (whatever that means)
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: sugarfizzle on Wednesday 12 June 19 13:01 BST (UK)
Not sure I fully understand your query, but presumably you are talking about predicted 4th to 6th cousin matches, not actual 4th cousins.

If you match with 2 people descended from your possible 2G grandparents, you would obviously be 3rd cousins to some degree.

But they may be connected to a different family as well. So more research is needed, and more matches, perhaps a bit closer and a bit further back.

Certainly not at this stage confirmatory, but worth investigating.

Regards Margaret
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: clogdancer on Wednesday 12 June 19 14:30 BST (UK)
The common (presumed) ancestor pair is my Gr Gr Gr Grandfather/Mother, and actual  Gr Gr Gr Grandfather/Mother to 4 people with the DNA link, not just 2.
That seems like a pretty sure bet to me, but I would like to find out more from someone more knowledgeable about DNA.
What do you call Gr Gr Gr Grandfather/Mother? 3G? 4G?
In any event, these 4 would be my 4th cousins surely?

Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: sugarfizzle on Wednesday 12 June 19 15:03 BST (UK)
The common (presumed) ancestor pair is my Gr Gr Gr Grandfather/Mother, and actual  Gr Gr Gr Grandfather/Mother to 4 people with the DNA link, not just 2.
That seems like a pretty sure bet to me, but I would like to find out more from someone more knowledgeable about DNA.
What do you call Gr Gr Gr Grandfather/Mother? 3G? 4G?
In any event, these 4 would be my 4th cousins surely?

Parents
Grandparents
1G great grandparents
2G great great grandparents
3G great great great grandparents
Etc.

In your case, descendants from your 3G grandparents, or great great great grandparents, would be 4th cousins to some degree, so sorry, I misunderstood you (not unusual for me these days, but I did say I didn't fully understand!).

4 descendants of possible 3G grandparents are matches to you, from 2 or more different children. Fairly likely that this is the right conclusion to make, that you are also related to this family.

But if it was me, I would still be looking for confirmatory evidence, exhausting any paper trails that would reach the same conclusion (I know you said that they are sparse, so you have probably done this already). I would also be looking for 5th cousin or further matches and 2nd and 3rd cousin matches from the same lines.

DNA evidence is another clue, but not at this stage confirmation. Since they are all descended from the same couple, by definition they are descended from the same 4G, 5G and 6G etc grandparents. It could be from one of those earlier lines that you are connected.

DNA painter gives the following relationship possibilities.
https://dnapainter.com/tools/sharedcmv4

64 cMs could be as far back as 6th cousins
32.27%Half 3C 3C1R Half 2C2R 2C3R 23.29%3C Half 2C1R 2C2R Half 1C3R 16.73%4C Half 3C1R 3C2R
14.10%Half 2C 2C1R Half 1C2R 1C3R
13.31%5C2R † 5C3R † 7C † 7C1R † 8C † 6C 6C1R 5C 6C2R 4C1R 5C1R Half 3C2R 4C2R 3C3R 4C3R
0.30%Half GG-Aunt / Uncle 2C Half 1C1R 1C2R Half GG-Niece / Nephew

26 cMs further back still
56.00%6C 6C1R 5C 6C2R 4C1R 5C1R 7C Half 3C2R 4C2R 5C2R 7C1R 3C3R 4C3R 5C3R 8C or more distant
16.60%Half 3C 3C1R Half 2C2R 2C3R
16.60%4C Half 3C1R 3C2R
8.60%3C Half 2C1R 2C2R Half 1C3R
 2.20%Half 1C2R † Half 2C 2C1R 1C3R

Regards Margaret
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: clogdancer on Wednesday 12 June 19 15:18 BST (UK)
Yes, I see what you mean, we could be related further back, and thank you for the technical stuff. (Not that I understand it!)
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: sugarfizzle on Wednesday 12 June 19 15:29 BST (UK)
Yes, I see what you mean, we could be related further back, and thank you for the technical stuff. (Not that I understand it!)

What technical stuff don't you understand? I'll try and explain if I can, as will others.
Another suggestion - use surname search for Maughan and Loftus. If both names come up it strengthens the suggestion, if only one name comes up, it could indicate a match further back. Look at these 4 matches trees, find out other names which might be expected to turn up as matches, or preferably do your own research. There again, if it is only Maughan ancestors or only Loftus matches that turn up, the likelihood again is it is further back

Repeat and repeat until 8th cousin level if possible, you could eventually end up with the right couple!! 

This DNA business is not as easy as it might seem!

Regards Margaret
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: Maiden Stone on Thursday 13 June 19 01:24 BST (UK)
sugarfizzle, it is technical. That's why I suggested that clogdancer start a new thread about the DNA aspect of the search. I don't do "technical".
Are results affected by 2nd or 3rd cousin marriages?
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: sugarfizzle on Thursday 13 June 19 02:40 BST (UK)
sugarfizzle, it is technical. That's why I suggested that clogdancer start a new thread about the DNA aspect of the search. I don't do "technical".
Are results affected by 2nd or 3rd cousin marriages?

I'm completely lost now, hopefully dementia is not rapidly setting in. Can't see any mention that clogdancer starts a new thread.

DNA is highly technical, interpretation of DNA results is technical as well, but tends to come a bit easier with reading about the subject, working with DNA results and also discussing it with forum members here. Especially the latter two.

1st 2nd and 3rd cousin marriage can influence results. In certain communities where intermarriage was normal, DNA results can be very difficult to work with. A 4th cousin of mine from Hawaii is related to practically everybody on the island. Whereas I have 240 closish (4th to 6th) cousins, she has 18,000. She has 68,557 matches in total. And only one of her parents was Hawaiian.

'Known second cousins on average share 212.5 centiMorgans (cMs), but in extreme cases can actually share as little as 47 cMs or as much as 760 cMs.'

https://isogg.org/wiki/Autosomal_DNA_statistics

DNAPainter is a very useful tool. Type in the amount of DNA shared with a match and it will come up suggestions, based on self-reported levels shared.

https://dnapainter.com/tools/sharedcmv4

Other useful links are given at the top of this forum. As I said at the beginning, DNA is highly technical, and I don't understand it fully, or even understand it well, but I know how it works for me, by working with my matches on a daily basis, comparing known paper trail cousins with their DNA results.

Regards Margaret
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: Maiden Stone on Thursday 13 June 19 03:30 BST (UK)

I'm completely lost now, hopefully dementia is not rapidly setting in. Can't see any mention that clogdancer starts a new thread.

Apology for confusion. This is clogdancer's new thread. The original thread, which is old, is about ancestor Anthony Maughan. Clogdancer returned to it a few days ago with news of a development through DNA, so I suggested a new thread to attract attention from people with appropriate knowledge. We were following paper-trails which peter out in Mayo.
Thanks for insight on cousins. The marriage register in the parish where my Loftus people lived didn't record degrees of consanguinity as some did.
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: clogdancer on Thursday 13 June 19 07:42 BST (UK)
Thanks all, for your input.
I've tried looking for DNA matches further back, but cant find anything that stands out.
Matching family trees tend to run out at the 4th-5th cousin stage anyway.
If there is a link further back that is more valid, it could of course be a different surname entirely.
I reckon I could only identify that by finding DNA matches that share surnames, which is next to impossible by just viewing records.
I've installed AncestryDNA Helper to get matches downloaded so I can sort and match them on my computer.
But can anyone tell me, what is the significance of the number of segments of shared DNA?
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: sugarfizzle on Thursday 13 June 19 08:41 BST (UK)
Clogdancer, DNA helper may not work for much longer, unless DNA helper come up with a solution. I haven't used it myself, so don't know what it entails, but the beta version currently being used for Ancestry matches clearly states that third party apps won't work with it when it is introduced fully, so get whatever you can quickly.

If you have only recently got your results back you may not realise what an improvement the new beta version is in many ways.

The segments inherited are usually a reflection of the closeness of the match, especially with higher numbers.

For example, I share 723 cMs over 32 segments with a known first cousin. Our grandparents might have passed down c 360 cMs each from 16 different segments (or one may have passed down more than the other one).

A known 2nd cousin shares 284 cMs over 11 segments, one known 3rd cousin shares 153/7. Another 3rd cousin shares only 17 cMs across a single segment.

So the amount inherited decreases with each generation.

But as DNA inheritance is random, the further down you go you may inherit only one segment from an ancestor, or two smaller ones, both of 20 cMs in total. Which, if either, is closer to you?

Up for debate, general consensus is that the 20/1 is closer than 10/2, but there will always be exceptions.

DNA inheritance is a random affair, after your parents. You inherit 50% from each parent and identical twins will also share 3400 cMs.
After that lots of variables come into play.
Refer to the ISOGG statistic and DNA painter links given in an earlier post. Work with your known matches. Get to know what is likely and what isn't.

In a month, or a year, or in 2 years time, you may find something to positively confirm what you think.

At one stage I thought that perhaps my great grandfather was not my great grandfather. Plenty of matches from his wife's family, none whatsoever from his. This was my maiden name, traced with confidence back to 17C Surrey.

Bit by bit the matches came in with ancestors from his line. Then my cousin got tested and I found different matches on that line as well.

It takes up a lot of my time, isn't easy, and there are no quick answers.

I hope some of the other regulars chip in as well, you've only got my feelings on the matter so far!

Regards Margaret
Title: Re: How confident should I be?
Post by: clogdancer on Thursday 13 June 19 11:26 BST (UK)
Thanks sugarfizzle for the explanation.
AncestryDNA Helper is still downloading data after 2 hours. Hope its worth it!
I'm planning to find what names are occurring across several different trees, and these could be my ancestors.