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General => Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing => Topic started by: brigidmac on Monday 28 March 22 09:57 BST (UK)

Title: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Monday 28 March 22 09:57 BST (UK)
Using DNA painter tool  to theorise on possible relationships  from 3c to half c x3


can the possibilities be narrowed down by looking at shared matches to their known relatives ?

   X matches me by 54 cm
So there are several possibilities

I know what my relationships are  to our shared matches including several with private or unlinked trees.
So  I can make an educated guess at common ancestors


X has to work out the generation + which line they fit into

Does knowing that they match my own cousin( not theirs) by 121 narrow.down possibilities and eliminate some possible relationships

Can you see most likely relationship  * see charts below
Title: Re: Matches of matches when you know how they connect. To each other
Post by: brigidmac on Monday 28 March 22 10:05 BST (UK)
X  me  54 cm & X  my cousin 121 cm 5 segs

Our  relationship to X must be the same !

We are similar ages to X but that is not always indication of DNA generations

What are the possible combinations now ?
Title: Re: Matches of matches knowing their interconnections
Post by: brigidmac on Monday 28 March 22 13:51 BST (UK)
I think it's odd that the top percentages of possible relationships suggested for me + X are the bottom most likely suggestions for
 X and my cousin

 #  I do  know  this person's DNA match amounts for my mum& my  mums cuz and half c1xR all descended from same grandfather .
 
Charts to follow

I'm  hoping these variations will help other people who DON'T know How they match

 So I'd  appreciate opinions from pro s or amateurs  about how /what to  deduce.
 
I think it already narrows down to 6 possibilities for X  and myself

Half 3C most likely from probabilities
Or 2C2R
3C ( most likely from generations)
Half 2C
2C 1R
Or  3C1R unlikeliest

Title: Re: Matches of matches knowing their interconnections
Post by: brigidmac on Monday 28 March 22 14:10 BST (UK)
So this is where I get stuck
How do we compare level of match between X myself .& my cousin as above

Or from chart below
 between X &  my mum 146cm 
X & mums  cousin 176cm

Can more possibilities be ruled out from this older generations matches ???

# Reworded to make  clearer ... hopefully !?

Title: Re: Matches of matches knowing their interconnections
Post by: brigidmac on Monday 28 March 22 15:53 BST (UK)
the top 5 suggestions would obviously be most likely and the older generation have more consistent probabilities for relationship matches

they MUST be a generation older than the first 2 examples

So some of the lower ones can be ruled out .

Need a logistics brain to confirm I'm thinking on right lines

I feel like the solution should be getting closer

Is the most likely answer now 3C to the sixties generation and 2C1R to the 1930s testees ??

If we have similar matches in future will we be able to extrapolate.


Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Thursday 31 March 22 20:12 BST (UK)
To continue in case anyone is following

Mr X has a high match with Mr T who has surname which is in our family (at first cousin level ) & matches son of Mr T at 381 cm

My mother matches Mr T at 146cm 2 segs
Who I  match at 38cm my cousin at 28cm

Theory was that Mr T and Mr X were the same generation and same relationship to us

Found that the connection was Mr Ts mother and surname a red herring  following the branch now  added to tree
Mr T is 2C 1R to my mum the cm levels are high for that level
3c to myself and MY cousin

Son of Mr T is showing as 3c1r to us and grandchildren of Mr t who have tested are not showing as matches  ..at 3c1r ..too distant

But they do match Mr X

Now think Mr X may be half nephew of Mr T

So if I could program all those results to a computer would it e able to confirm theory ???
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Saturday 02 April 22 14:21 BST (UK)
Hi brigidmac,
   From your posts i am guessing you have used the Shared cM tool, on the DNA painter site, but have you tried the WATO tool ?  Using that, you can build a little tree  with you and your cousin, and enter the shared match to X for each of you, it can then use the combined odds to suggest possible relationships rather than just the one at a time ?

Richard
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Saturday 02 April 22 14:30 BST (UK)

Iíve tried using WATO Richard, but canít make head or tail of the charts that Iíve done 😵‍💫

Romilly.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Saturday 02 April 22 15:14 BST (UK)
Hi Romilly,
   Which charts are you referring to ?  You have 3 parts to the results from the WATO tool, the tree itself which shows the various hypotheses (with v2 it also highights the best fit), then you get a table version of those hypotheses ordered by best fit to worst, with finally a table with the individual results from each person cM match.  I personally don't take to much notice of the last table, but the other 2 are very useful especially if you start removing the hypotheses you know are impossible :-) 

Richard
   
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Saturday 02 April 22 15:44 BST (UK)
Hi Richard,

I donít know if I can Post it here, as possibly too big?

Iíll try anyway.

Romilly

Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Saturday 02 April 22 20:12 BST (UK)
It's too fuzzy to read on my phone .will try on computer .

Next  Friday I'm going to explain to one of my computer wizard friends about DNA and look at the Leeds method

If that does what I want

Or WATO. If you'd recommend that more .

Meanwhile I may be getting more known family statistics

As ms Y has been on my match list but her tree has her mother as home person and is not actually linked to the DNA results .

She is descended from same great grandmother as Mr T s line and according to high DNA matches to Mr X so is their 2cand

My 3C cos mutual common ancestor is  1 generation up .

.


Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Saturday 02 April 22 20:38 BST (UK)
Hi Richard,

I donít know if I can Post it here, as possibly too big?

Iíll try anyway.

Romilly
Ok, i can't read the numbers, but if you look at the tree the higher number in the little green box the better the odds for that relationship.  Also if you switch to the new beta v2 you will get the wrod strongest above the best fit. 
Next if you scroll down, to the ranking table, that will show you each possibility in turn, which you can look back to see on the diagram :-)

Richard
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Saturday 02 April 22 20:43 BST (UK)
It's too fuzzy to read on my phone .will try on computer .

Next  Friday I'm going to explain to one of my computer wizard friends about DNA and look at the Leeds method

If that does what I want

Or WATO. If you'd recommend that more .

Meanwhile I may be getting more known family statistics

As ms Y has been on my match list but her tree has her mother as home person and is not actually linked to the DNA results .

She is descended from same great grandmother as Mr T s line and according to high DNA matches to Mr X so is their 2cand

My 3C cos mutual common ancestor is  1 generation up .

.
The leeds method is great for grouping sets of matches together who potentially come from the same ancestors. My own view is that once you start getting a few matches that have known links together the leeds method is great to start linking other unknowns to them. 
I think in your case though with WATO might give you possibilities for relationships that you can then check out easier.

Richard
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Saturday 02 April 22 20:59 BST (UK)
thanks Richard yes thats my case I have matriarchs of a few of the lines who have dna tested and canoften work out which of great grandfathers siblings they descend from and then narrow descendants from the next generation
i know exact match of the people who descend from my own great grandfathers first and second marriages and those of his wifes.first marriage and descendants of her sisters tho ggfather was a JONES and ggmother was a SMITH

we have step siblings + adopters adoptees in most generations and branches .plus some other complex relationships .

I think such a huge data base and scope will helpthe unknown ..have alresdy found where a warbaby  and a grandchild of an adoptee fit in thru the dna and background story : ,location or family history notes well documented

so it does sound as if leeds method will be best .  I..ll keep you updated
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Thursday 12 May 22 15:19 BST (UK)
Hi Richard,
I donít know if I can Post it here, as possibly too big?
Iíll try anyway.

Romilly
Ok, i can't read the numbers, but if you look at the tree the higher number in the little green box the better the odds for that relationship.  Also if you switch to the new beta v2 you will get the wrod strongest above the best fit. 
Next if you scroll down, to the ranking table, that will show you each possibility in turn, which you can look back to see on the diagram :-)

Richard

Iíll try Posting the Link, and see if thatís easier to read:

https://dnapainter.com/tools/probability/view/f832703b623bd5b3

If Iím understanding it correctly, itís Hypothesis 1 that is the most probable result?
Romilly.


Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Thursday 12 May 22 15:43 BST (UK)
Thanks for posting that example romilly
It does look like a very useful tool . I want to get my teeth into it ...next computer lesson ..

Hypothesis 1 is the most likely result but don't discount the others .

Does what the computer tells you match what your instinct tells you ?

Can you add new people as you get more results .
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Thursday 12 May 22 16:13 BST (UK)

I'm just seeing if I can add new people, or whether I have to start a new Chart...

Since doing that one I've had a few new matches, but all are descended from the same Kean family.

I've gone through all of the children of Richard Kean and Frances Butler and can't find one who could be my Grandfather, born 1860.

Possibly my Grandfather was fathered by Richard Kean, born 1832, but outside of marriage? That might explain why he's a Wilson and not a Kean?

Romilly.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Thursday 12 May 22 17:13 BST (UK)
Just looked again, and Hypothesis 1 seems to be based on my Grandfather being born in 1877? Whereas he was born in 1860Ö

And so Iím unsure if I should discount this hypothesis?


Hypothesis 1
Subject is the child of Father of IH b1896 and grandchild of Unknown half-sib born circa 1877

SCORE = 1,582
About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesis.

Romilly.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Thursday 12 May 22 17:23 BST (UK)
Just looked again, and Hypothesis 1 seems to be based on my Grandfather being born in 1877? Whereas he was born in 1860Ö

And so Iím unsure if I should discount this hypothesis?


Hypothesis 1
Subject is the child of Father of IH b1896 and grandchild of Unknown half-sib born circa 1877

SCORE = 1,582
About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesis.

Romilly.
Hi Romilly,
     Sorry only just seen your earlier response, so only just looked at your tree.  Not sure how you original built the tree, but the 1877 date is part of the 'name' for that person, so is nto actually used in any of the 'calculations' for the probabilities. So no you shouldn't discount it.   
     On your previous message you asked about adding new people, and yes you can do that, if you click on a person there is the option to add a child (or parent if they are the top of the tree).

Richard
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Thursday 12 May 22 17:42 BST (UK)

Many thanks Richard.

I'm still trying to understand these hypotheses, but looking at the next page would seem to indicate that my highest paternal match is a half 2nd Cousin?

Romilly.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Thursday 12 May 22 17:51 BST (UK)

Many thanks Richard.

I'm still trying to understand these hypotheses, but looking at the next page would seem to indicate that my highest paternal match is a half 2nd Cousin?

Romilly.

Correct, if hypotheses 1 is correct, then out of all the matches you have entered on the tree, the closest is a half 2nd cousin to you.

Richard
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Thursday 12 May 22 18:00 BST (UK)
Thanks again Richard.

Just trying to get my head round half 2nd Cousins!

And so, (potentially) my highest paternal DNA match, VK and I have a shared relationship to Richard Kean (1832 - 1894) but not to his wife Frances Butler (1833 - 1873).

This is confusing, because I also have Butler DNA matches, and I assumed that these came via herÖ?

Romilly.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Thursday 12 May 22 18:07 BST (UK)
I didn't get my computer lesson so haven't attempted this yet .but at least I'm connected to WiFi now .
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Thursday 12 May 22 18:22 BST (UK)
And so, (potentially) my highest paternal DNA match, VK and I have a shared relationship to Richard Kean (1832 - 1894) but not to his wife Frances Butler (1833 - 1873).

Actuall if i read your tree correctly, its Thomas Kean b1858 is your connection to VK, but not his wife Mary Ann Kay.  So your grandfather is a half sibling of Joseph Frederock Keane.

Richard
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Thursday 12 May 22 18:54 BST (UK)
Thanks Richard,

I really appreciate your input.

Iíve been puzzling over this for so long that Iíve probably lost perspective 😵‍💫🙄.

Thomas Kean was born in 1858, my Grandfather William James Wilson in 1860.

Thomas Keanís son Joseph Frederick Kean is born in 1888. For my Grandfather to have been Joseph Frederick Keanís half sibling, he couldnít have been the son of Thomas Kean born in 1858?

Romilly.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: rsel on Thursday 12 May 22 19:40 BST (UK)
Thanks Richard,

I really appreciate your input.

Iíve been puzzling over this for so long that Iíve probably lost perspective 😵‍💫🙄.

Thomas Kean was born in 1858, my Grandfather William James Wilson in 1860.

Thomas Keanís son Joseph Frederick Kean is born in 1888. For my Grandfather to have been Joseph Frederick Keanís half sibling, he couldnít have been the son of Thomas Kean born in 1858?

Romilly.

Agree, those dates make that impossible, so try removing that hypothosis, and see what the tool suggests instead.  Its one those areas, you you have to look at what it shows you, and then start removing the impossible options, in hope you end up with a few that make sense from both the DNA and the date side :-)

Richard
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Romilly on Thursday 12 May 22 20:02 BST (UK)

I'm going to have another go at this tomorrow, and see if I can make any sense of it...

I agree that there has to be a link to Thomas Kean, because I have a new DNA match who is his Great Granddaughter.

Romilly.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Thursday 12 May 22 23:14 BST (UK)
Good luck .it's interesting to see a step by step approach ...I do hope you get the solution
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: Biggles50 on Friday 13 May 22 14:34 BST (UK)
One of my DNA matches has a basic tree of 5, just enough people to get to their ancestors who have passed away.

He had included his full name as user name and given the 144 cM is in 3C range finding the link should be straightforward, wrong!

I spend hours going over and over the tree I had built around him and went back to his Great Great Great Grandparents but still nothing that looked right.

Then I had a lightbulb moment, the DNA results were not for him but for his Wife.  Ten minutes later I had her linked in my tree.
Title: Re: understanding Matches of matches knowing some connections
Post by: brigidmac on Friday 13 May 22 22:26 BST (UK)
Biggles I had exactly same but for a husband
I hadnt even twigged that the profiles image was blue silhouette not pink !
Had exchanged several messages with the wife where we thought we may have found a name connection before she mentioned that her husband had relatives from Latvia .and the penny dropped