Author Topic: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing  (Read 6993 times)

Offline Redroger

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #18 on: Sunday 07 February 16 20:36 GMT (UK) »
Is under recording of the condition also a factor?
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Offline Guy Etchells

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #19 on: Monday 08 February 16 14:07 GMT (UK) »
Is under recording of the condition also a factor?

That is part of the preoblem, no one really knows as it is expected that individuals only have one set of DNA in there body so further tests are seldom taken.

It could be commonplace or more likely it could be rare

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Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #20 on: Monday 08 February 16 15:04 GMT (UK) »
Over three million people have now taken DNA tests for genetic genealogy purposes. There are thousands and thousands of related individuals in the databases mother/father/child trios, father/son pairs, first cousins, second cousins, etc. If this phenomenon were common we would have heard of it by now.
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Offline Guy Etchells

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #21 on: Monday 08 February 16 15:42 GMT (UK) »
Over three million people have now taken DNA tests for genetic genealogy purposes. There are thousands and thousands of related individuals in the databases mother/father/child trios, father/son pairs, first cousins, second cousins, etc. If this phenomenon were common we would have heard of it by now.

Obviously we have heard of it or we would not be discussing it at present.

However.

Three million people is only the same as the population of the city of Manchester.
This means in terms of the population of a country like England it is a tiny sample. less that 6%.
If you think of 3 million in terms of the population of the USA (318.9 in 2014) it is even smaller.

That is what is wrong with all the various claims made by DNA companies; they make claims based on insignificant numbers.

That does not mean the claims are wrong but simply that they cannot yet be justified, they may be in time but as yet they cannot.

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Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #22 on: Monday 08 February 16 17:01 GMT (UK) »
Guy

I don't know why you think you have to test the entire population of the world to draw conclusions from DNA testing. There is a huge body of scientific literature from which we now understand the processes of DNA inheritance. We know that a child receives half of his or her DNA from each parent and that they receive one set of 22 autosomal chromosomes from the mother and another set of 22 autosomal chromosomes from the father. A male will have an X and a Y chromosome. A female will have two X chromosomes. We know that a child shares around 25% of his or her DNA with his grandparents, and around 12.5% of his her DNA with his great-grandparents. This is basic biology. We can use this knowledge to deduce relationships. If you and your father take a DNA test with enough markers and you share the expected amount of DNA with him and you have inherited a complete set of 23 chromosomes from him then we know for sure that he is your father.
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Offline Guy Etchells

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #23 on: Monday 08 February 16 18:25 GMT (UK) »
Guy

I don't know why you think you have to test the entire population of the world to draw conclusions from DNA testing. There is a huge body of scientific literature from which we now understand the processes of DNA inheritance. We know that a child receives half of his or her DNA from each parent and that they receive one set of 22 autosomal chromosomes from the mother and another set of 22 autosomal chromosomes from the father. A male will have an X and a Y chromosome. A female will have two X chromosomes. We know that a child shares around 25% of his or her DNA with his grandparents, and around 12.5% of his her DNA with his great-grandparents. This is basic biology. We can use this knowledge to deduce relationships. If you and your father take a DNA test with enough markers and you share the expected amount of DNA with him and you have inherited a complete set of 23 chromosomes from him then we know for sure that he is your father.

I did not say that.
I did say that to claim everyone's DNA was different everyone in the world would have to be tested.
That stands to reason because if the final person has a DNA match with another person then everyone in the world would not have different DNA.

However you stated
Quote from: DevonCruwys on Today at 15:04:10

    "Over three million people have now taken DNA tests for genetic genealogy purposes. There are thousands and thousands of related individuals in the databases mother/father/child trios, father/son pairs, first cousins, second cousins, etc. If this phenomenon were common we would have heard of it by now."

You were inferring that based on the numbers of people tested chimerism was not common. That claim cannot be made as the numbers of people tested is so small as to be insignificant.
You are talking about the equivalent of one city in a country, it could be that in a particular area or a particular group of people chimerism is not only common but the normal state of affairs.

Until more people are tested and indeed until more people have tests from different parts of their bodies that claim cannot be substantiated.

In the example I gave if the woman concerned had DNA from a cervical smear in the first place instead of from blood samples it may not have been discovered she had two sets of DNA in her body.

Take for instance tossing a coin there is a 50 percent chance of a head or a tail being shown.
I tossed a coin 10 times (not a significant number of times).
It fell heads up 7 times and tails up 3 times.
More interestingly the first 5 times in a row it fell heads up.

If I repeated that I would probably get a completely different set of results.

If however I tossed the coin say a thousand times I would expect to find the number of heads would equal or nearly equal the number of tails.

One cannot draw positive conclusions from small samples.

The mechanics of the sampling has to be taken into consideration as well.
I remember in a physics lesson at school our teacher was trying to demonstrate Newton’s Third Law of Motion. (For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction). He was using a small cart with a sprung captive bolt in it.
The claim was that if he hit the trigger (a round ball on a vertical shaft) the cart would not move in any direction, however every time he did it moved to the right.
Was Newton wrong no, the teacher was applying an additional force to the cart because he was hitting the trigger at a slight angle rather than vertically.

Cheers
Guy

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Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #24 on: Monday 08 February 16 19:01 GMT (UK) »
For genetic genealogy we're looking for people who share segments or markers of DNA with us. There would be no point in doing the tests otherwise. No one is trying to prove that everyone has different DNA. Why would we want to do that? We know that already. Every human on the planet has a slightly different combination of three billion DNA letters. As you saw from the paper I cited, we can now even distinguish between the DNA of identical twins. Over three million people have taken genetic genealogy tests. There are millions and millions of people in police DNA databases all over the world. Those are massive sample sizes.
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Offline Guy Etchells

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #25 on: Monday 08 February 16 20:24 GMT (UK) »
“Hear now this, O foolish people, and without understanding; which have eyes, and see not; which have ears, and hear not” Jeremiah 5:21.

Genetic genealogy is based on assumptions set out in theories.

No one is trying to prove that everyone has different DNA. Why would we want to do that? We know that already.”

Do you know that, how do you know that? You are simply accepting a theory.

Every human on the planet has a slightly different combination of three billion DNA letters.

Another claim that cannot be substantiated and in this case can never be substantiated until every person on the planet has their DNA tested and the results compared.
It may prove to be true but at present it is a theory.

As you saw from the paper I cited, we can now even distinguish between the DNA of identical twins.

No I saw the result of an experiment that suggested that but did not prove that.
For example what kind of “Identical twins” where they?

The paper states they were monozygotic but were they monochorionic-monoamniotic or were they monochorionic-diamniotic?
Would the difference between the two types account for the mutation shown in the result?
You see the science is still being extended but there are still questions to answer.

There are millions and millions of people in police DNA databases all over the world. Those are massive sample sizes.

When compared with what ?
When compared with the population of the world (estimated to be 7 billion or so people in 2012) the numbers in all DNA databases combined barely scratch the surface.

The theories may prove to be accurate but at this stage we do not know.
More experiments need to be undertaken more research needs to be done, that is how science advances.
Even now someone somewhere will be working on their own theory that may confirm an earlier one or may contradict an earlier one.

What you do not seem grasp is I am not contesting the science I am contesting your terminology.

Cheers
Guy
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Offline DavidG02

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Re: Possible nightmare for the future re DNA tracing
« Reply #26 on: Monday 08 February 16 20:59 GMT (UK) »

However you stated
Quote from: DevonCruwys on Today at 15:04:10

    "Over three million people have now taken DNA tests for genetic genealogy purposes. There are thousands and thousands of related individuals in the databases mother/father/child trios, father/son pairs, first cousins, second cousins, etc. If this phenomenon were common we would have heard of it by now."

You were inferring that based on the numbers of people tested chimerism was not common. That claim cannot be made as the numbers of people tested is so small as to be insignificant.
You are talking about the equivalent of one city in a country, it could be that in a particular area or a particular group of people chimerism is not only common but the normal state of affairs.

Until more people are tested and indeed until more people have tests from different parts of their bodies that claim cannot be substantiated.

In the example I gave if the woman concerned had DNA from a cervical smear in the first place instead of from blood samples it may not have been discovered she had two sets of DNA in her body.

<snip>

One cannot draw positive conclusions from small samples.

Guy I think you are splitting hairs. It is sound scientific principle to correlate small samples into larger population bases. It is also used in Polling . Where you are correct is the inference '' how to determine best sample size''

But good luck in court trying to fight DNA based on different body region tests :)

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