I think many people are disappointed with the lack of "connecivity" within their DNA matches. For me, the reality has been that there are very few matches that I can connect to my family tree and I have identified all my 3xgreat-grandparents!
Whilst the levels of probabilty quoted for a match to be a definite connection appear to be reasonable, I feel that the "4th to 6th cousin" indicator is misleading.
I have a 94cM match suggested to be a 3rd cousin who is actually a 1st cousin twice removed (and is the grandchild of a cousin I have just reconnected after sixty years). I know the small print suggests this as an alternative relationship, but it is not what most people seem to expect.
Looking at my top ten 4th cousin matches, I have positively identified only one commmon ancestor. Two more are descendants of a Welsh emigre to Utah whose name I know but whose connection I cannot find on paper even though he is from the same village as my maternal grandfather.
My most common shared match is with shared with unidentifed "Ingram" ancestors who I can trace back in my tree to 1725. I share >20cm matches with twenty-nine other such individuals and can identify a common anceestor in only four of them!
Almost certainly, there will be a few "indiscretions". Add in some false positives and the probabilities dwindle quite rapidly.
Having painted what might seem like a bleak picture, I have found some very rewarding nuggets. Like most gold, they took an awful lot of digging.
