Author Topic: 1 in 10!  (Read 1264 times)

Online Mike in Cumbria

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #9 on: Saturday 01 June 19 16:10 BST (UK) »
There doesn't seem to be any scientific basis for the 1 in 10 guesstimate.

If the news article referred to by Zetlander is from the Telegraph, the online version gives two estimates in the same article:  10% according to Ian Cumming and 4% attributed to "current estimates".  In the same article, Professor Mark Bellis says "There are still very few reliable figures on paternal discrepancy and consequently inadequate thought given to how to deal with it.Ē

I simply don't believe it's anything like 1 in 10 and it's among the 73.6% of statistics that are made up on the spot.

1 in 10 makes a better headline than "We don't know".

https://twnews.co.uk/uk-news/one-person-in-10-is-mistaken-about-the-identity-of-their-father-reveals-nhs-chief

Como le dijo el mosquito a la rana, "Mas vale morir en el vino que vivir en el agua"

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Offline Erato

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #10 on: Saturday 01 June 19 16:12 BST (UK) »
This study puts it at about 1 - 2% in Belgium over the past few hundred years.

https://www.medicaldaily.com/you-are-not-father-380843
Wiltshire:  Banks, Taylor
Somerset:  Duddridge, Richards, Barnard, Pillinger
Gloucestershire:  Barnard, Marsh, Crossman
Bristol:  Banks, Duddridge, Barnard
Down:  Ennis, McGee
Wicklow:  Chapman, Pepper
Wigtownshire:  Logan, Conning
Wisconsin:  Ennis, Chapman, Logan, Ware
Maine:  Ware, Mitchell, Tarr

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Online Mike in Cumbria

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #11 on: Saturday 01 June 19 16:29 BST (UK) »
This study puts it at about 1 - 2% in Belgium over the past few hundred years.

https://www.medicaldaily.com/you-are-not-father-380843

That's a good study, with a scientific basis. However, I find this statement rather silly:

 "Although some married women may see the advantage of cheating to have children in better physical health, the researchers believe most women donít think itís worth the potential costs, including spousal aggression, divorce, or a decline in parental involvement with their children. "


I don't think that, where cheating does occur, it's often a case of seeking out better genes for potential children.
Como le dijo el mosquito a la rana, "Mas vale morir en el vino que vivir en el agua"

Offline Erato

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #12 on: Saturday 01 June 19 16:33 BST (UK) »
Yeah, I thought that was a weird statement, too.
Wiltshire:  Banks, Taylor
Somerset:  Duddridge, Richards, Barnard, Pillinger
Gloucestershire:  Barnard, Marsh, Crossman
Bristol:  Banks, Duddridge, Barnard
Down:  Ennis, McGee
Wicklow:  Chapman, Pepper
Wigtownshire:  Logan, Conning
Wisconsin:  Ennis, Chapman, Logan, Ware
Maine:  Ware, Mitchell, Tarr

Online Mike in Cumbria

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #13 on: Saturday 01 June 19 16:36 BST (UK) »
Yeah, I thought that was a weird statement, too.

We could start a poll here, but we might not get many respondents.
Como le dijo el mosquito a la rana, "Mas vale morir en el vino que vivir en el agua"

Online groom

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #14 on: Saturday 01 June 19 16:44 BST (UK) »
Quote
"Although some married women may see the advantage of cheating to have children in better physical health, the researchers believe most women donít think itís worth the potential costs, including spousal aggression, divorce, or a decline in parental involvement with their children. "


So are they saying that some women think. "I'd like a child brighter than my husband." or "My husband isn't very tall, so I'll have a baby with someone taller " Surely no one really thinks like that? More likely that the woman has an affair, regrets it, so keeps quiet and hopes that everyone thinks the baby is her husbands.
Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk

Offline Erato

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #15 on: Saturday 01 June 19 16:49 BST (UK) »
One [unavoidable] defect of the study is that, since it is based on Y chromosomes, it traces only male offspring.  One has to assume that the rate is the same for female children but that is only true if husbands are equally likely to tolerate either sex if and when they suspect a child is not their own.  That might not be true - they might be less tolerant of a suspected male cuckoo in the nest because he would stand to inherit a name and property that were not 'rightly' his.
Wiltshire:  Banks, Taylor
Somerset:  Duddridge, Richards, Barnard, Pillinger
Gloucestershire:  Barnard, Marsh, Crossman
Bristol:  Banks, Duddridge, Barnard
Down:  Ennis, McGee
Wicklow:  Chapman, Pepper
Wigtownshire:  Logan, Conning
Wisconsin:  Ennis, Chapman, Logan, Ware
Maine:  Ware, Mitchell, Tarr

Offline ThrelfallYorky

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #16 on: Saturday 01 June 19 17:05 BST (UK) »
... But it's not going to stop any of us rejoicing when we come upon another (male) ancestor, is it? Remember, there are lies, damned lies - and statistics!
Threlfall (Southport), Isherwood (lancs & Canada), Newbould + Topliss(Derby), Keating & Cummins (Ireland + lancs), Fisher, Strong& Casson (all Cumberland) & Downie & Bowie, Linlithgow area Scotland . Also interested in Leigh& Burrows,(Lancashire) Griffiths (Shropshire & lancs), Leaver (Lancs/Yorks) & Anderson(Cumberland and very elusive)

Offline brigidmac

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Re: 1 in 10!
« Reply #17 on: Saturday 01 June 19 17:09 BST (UK) »
My father was named after the milkman ....whose baby had lovely red hair apparently ...my grandfather was a sailor and i must admit i did expect to find that my dna would not match.my aunts and half cousins would pop up all over the world but so far DNA matches have proved so far that my grand father his father and his great grandfather ARE the fathers of the children on the trees ..

And if you do have mismatches its not always from cheating but sometimes from adoptions which were not declared as such .
Roberts,Fellman.Macdermid MCDERMID McDiarmid Gardner Jones ,Bloch,Irvine,Hallis Stevenson ,McKay