Author Topic: the case of San Marino  (Read 293 times)

Offline wee Hugh

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the case of San Marino
« on: Tuesday 24 March 20 11:48 GMT (UK) »
Can anyone explain why there have been so many deaths reported in San Marino?
To date 589 per million of population, compared to 100 in Italy, 5 in the UK as a whole, and fewer than 1 in Canada (just by way of example).

Admittedly the population is largely urban, but the density is less than in the Channel Islands, Malta, the Vatican, Gibraltar, and certainly Monaco which packs them in like sardines.  But none of those has yet reported a single death.

Can the huge differences be put down simply to differing standards?
Are some authorities just assigning all deaths to the coronavirus if not obviously due to something else?  And other countries perhaps playing down the number?
Bagwell of Kilmore & Lisronagh, Co. Tipperary;  Beatty from Enniskillen;  Brown from Preston, Lancs.;  Burke of Ballydugan, Co. Galway;  Casement in the IoM and Co. Antrim;  Davison of Knockboy, Broughshane;  Frobisher;  Guillemard;  Harrison in Co. Antrim and Dublin;  Jones around Burton Pedwardine, Lincs.;  Lindesay of Loughry;  Newcomen of Camlagh, Co. Roscommon;  Shield;  Watson from Kidderminster;  Wilkinson from Leeds

Offline Falkyrn

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #1 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 12:45 GMT (UK) »
I think you might need to check your sources re their numbers - The BBC puts the population of San Marino (the country) at 33,400

Although the real figures do make grim reading -one possible cause is given as the aging population

Quote
As of 23 March 2020: With 187 confirmed cases out of a population of 33,344 (as of 2018), it is the country with the highest percentage of confirmed cases per capita at 0.56% 1 confirmed case per 179 inhabitants.[2] Also, with 20 confirmed deaths, the country has the highest rate of confirmed deaths per capita at 0.06% of the total population 1 death per 1,668 inhabitants.[2] Finally, with 20 deaths out of 187 cases, the country has the highest case fatality rate (of any country with more than 100 cases) at 10.7% 1 death per 10 confirmed cases.[3]

Offline Dundee

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #2 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 12:59 GMT (UK) »

To date 589 per million of population, compared to 100 in Italy, 5 in the UK as a whole, and fewer than 1 in Canada

There is nothing wrong with the math, 20 confirmed deaths as of yesterday is about 599 per million.

Debra  :)


Offline Falkyrn

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #3 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 13:17 GMT (UK) »

To date 589 per million of population, compared to 100 in Italy, 5 in the UK as a whole, and fewer than 1 in Canada

There is nothing wrong with the math, 20 confirmed deaths as of yesterday is about 599 per million.

Debra  :)

True, but extrapolating the figures that way exaggerates and distorts them to give a false impression rather ike the make up and shampoo ads which claim high percentages of approvals when they have only used a very small number of test subjects.

Offline wee Hugh

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #4 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 13:26 GMT (UK) »
A good try, Falkryn, but Monaco and Gibraltar each have similar populations and no deaths reported.  Channel Islands 173 thousand, Malta 494 thousand: no deaths.
There's something more suspicious about San Marino than simply the small size of sample.
Is it simply a case of "lies, damned lies, and statistics"?
I think there's more to it than that: but I'd like to know what!
Bagwell of Kilmore & Lisronagh, Co. Tipperary;  Beatty from Enniskillen;  Brown from Preston, Lancs.;  Burke of Ballydugan, Co. Galway;  Casement in the IoM and Co. Antrim;  Davison of Knockboy, Broughshane;  Frobisher;  Guillemard;  Harrison in Co. Antrim and Dublin;  Jones around Burton Pedwardine, Lincs.;  Lindesay of Loughry;  Newcomen of Camlagh, Co. Roscommon;  Shield;  Watson from Kidderminster;  Wilkinson from Leeds

Offline Sam Swift

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #5 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 13:33 GMT (UK) »
I'm not much good at maths myself and  you can read what you like in stats. I never knew San Marino was a republic, so I've learned something new today! It appears that over 90%  of the population is urban, in a small area and that less money is spent on health care (GDP) than many countries https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS   I suspect that one reason is that the health care system cannot cope with the size of th epopulation due to underfunding etc.

I did read the North of Italy has a large cheap labour Chinese immigrant population that make the expensive fashion clothing, which is probably why teh coronavirus affected so many there with to-ing and fro-ing of people from China. I don't know if San Marino is similar or not when it is listed as having a migration rate of 7.5 / 1000 and is 14th in the World (not sure if it means inward or outward migration either)  https://www.economy.com/san-marino/indicators


Offline Sam Swift

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #6 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 13:40 GMT (UK) »
"Medicine and Health Care
San Marino is able to provide low-cost health care for its citizens through clinics and a small hospital. Although the level of care is high, for certain types of health care the Sammarinese must turn to hospitals outside of the republic."

https://www.everyculture.com/No-Sa/San-Marino.html


Offline KGarrad

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #7 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 15:17 GMT (UK) »
San Marino isn't an island, and is surrounded on all sides by Italy.

No deaths, and only 20 confirmed cases, here on the Isle of Man (population 85,000).
Borders closed to non-residents; arrivals must self-isolate for 14 days.
Garrad (Suffolk, Essex, Somerset), Crocker (Somerset), Vanstone (Devon, Jersey), Sims (Wiltshire), Bridger (Kent)

Offline wee Hugh

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Re: the case of San Marino
« Reply #8 on: Tuesday 24 March 20 16:14 GMT (UK) »
I wonder whether lots of infected people in Italy fled across the border to escape the lock-down.  It won't have done them much good: San Marino has no airport and not even a railway station, so they'll have been stuck there.

Northern Ireland isn't exactly an island, but so far we've done better than the UK as a whole, and certainly better than England.
Bagwell of Kilmore & Lisronagh, Co. Tipperary;  Beatty from Enniskillen;  Brown from Preston, Lancs.;  Burke of Ballydugan, Co. Galway;  Casement in the IoM and Co. Antrim;  Davison of Knockboy, Broughshane;  Frobisher;  Guillemard;  Harrison in Co. Antrim and Dublin;  Jones around Burton Pedwardine, Lincs.;  Lindesay of Loughry;  Newcomen of Camlagh, Co. Roscommon;  Shield;  Watson from Kidderminster;  Wilkinson from Leeds