UK Infection numbers

[LizzieL]

Each day the Government announces the number of new cases i.e number of people reported to have tested positive. For the last couple of weeks it has been well under 2000 - one day even under 1000.
But I recall a few weeks ago it being said that the true figure was around 8000 per day when the government was quoting a little over 2000 at the time. I think this was just before eligibility for testing had increased, so hopefully the figures shouldn't now be under reported by so much and the 1279 reported yesterday is a bit closer to the truth.

Assuming an average number of infections of 1500 per day over the last 10 days, there would be 15000 people walking around infected but not knowing it if they all only exhibited symptoms on the 10th day. (I know there's a spread from about 5 - 14 days in showing symptoms, but those who showed symptoms before 10 days would hopefully isolate themselves). That works out at about 1 in 4500 of the UK population. That is still a frighteningly high number. My nearest supermarket is in what is regarded as a small town (doesn't have a Sainsburys or an ASDA) and has a population almost 4 times that.

I had thought New Zealand was incredibly unlucky to import 2 UK residents who were infected, but having done the figures it doesn't seem so unlikely. As they were family members travelling together I have only counted them as one infection

[Guy Etchells]

Each day the Government announces the number of new cases i.e number of people reported to have tested positive. For the last couple of weeks it has been well under 2000 - one day even under 1000.
But I recall a few weeks ago it being said that the true figure was around 8000 per day when the government was quoting a little over 2000 at the time. I think this was just before eligibility for testing had increased, so hopefully the figures shouldn't now be under reported by so much and the 1279 reported yesterday is a bit closer to the truth.

Assuming an average number of infections of 1500 per day over the last 10 days, there would be 15000 people walking around infected but not knowing it if they all only exhibited symptoms on the 10th day. (I know there's a spread from about 5 - 14 days in showing symptoms, but those who showed symptoms before 10 days would hopefully isolate themselves). That works out at about 1 in 4500 of the UK population. That is still a frighteningly high number. My nearest supermarket is in what is regarded as a small town (doesn't have a Sainsburys or an ASDA) and has a population almost 4 times that.

I had thought New Zealand was incredibly unlucky to import 2 UK residents who were infected, but having done the figures it doesn't seem so unlikely. As they were family members travelling together I have only counted them as one infection

The population of the England is estimated at 55,977,178  people

Latest estimates indicate that during the two weeks from 25 May to 7 June 2020, an average of 33,000 people in England had the coronavirus

So that means that roughly 1 person in every 1696 people is infected at any one time in England, whilst that is a high figure it also means that if you take sensible precautions the chance of being in contact with any one of those infected people is pretty low.

In other words for most people if you follow the guidance (distancing & handwashing) and be careful you are unlikely to get infected.
Cheers
Guy

[Mowsehowse]

GUY: Evidently IoM took similar and sensible precautions in a timely manner to be totally free of infection now.

How was it done?
Closing of ports and airport, or temperature testing and quarantining?

I do feel it is spooky that of all the people in the whole of England, the 2 who went to NZ just happened to be infected!!

[KGarrad]

GUY: Evidently IoM took similar and sensible precautions in a timely manner to be totally free of infection now.

How was it done?
Closing of ports and airport, or temperature testing and quarantining?

I do feel it is spooky that of all the people in the whole of England, the 2 who went to NZ just happened to be infected!!

Port and airport closed to all but essential passenger - i.e repatriations (which had to be applied for), urgent patient visits to UK, health service staff, etc.

Track-and-trace on all positive cases - admittedly much easier on an island of 85000 people!
Compulsory self-isolation for positive tests and their families.

Failure to adhere to lockdown measures resulted in cautions, fines, and ultimately jail

Our Government introduced Emergency Powers.

KG (Isle of Man resident)

P.S.
Our borders will remain closed until the UK sorts out it's problems

P.P.S.
Bars, pubs and clubs open tomorrow

[Mowsehowse]

Quite so.
The entire globe must be rocking with mirth.

[Guy Etchells]

GUY: Evidently IoM took similar and sensible precautions in a timely manner to be totally free of infection now.

How was it done?
Closing of ports and airport, or temperature testing and quarantining?

I do feel it is spooky that of all the people in the whole of England, the 2 who went to NZ just happened to be infected!!

Spooky or willing to take the risk, apparently "One of the women had "mild symptoms", but put this down to a pre-existing condition."
But that is just repeating reported news and may not be accurate.

Cheers
Guy

[stanmapstone]

GUY: Evidently IoM took similar and sensible precautions in a timely manner to be totally free of infection now.

How was it done?
Closing of ports and airport, or temperature testing and quarantining?

I do feel it is spooky that of all the people in the whole of England, the 2 who went to NZ just happened to be infected!!

New Zealand’s director general of health, Ashley Bloomfield, told the media the women could have picked up the coronavirus in the UK, in airports, or on their flights.


Stan

[Guy Etchells]

New Zealand’s director general of health, Ashley Bloomfield, told the media the women could have picked up the coronavirus in the UK, in airports, or on their flights.


Stan

That's one of the problems of air travel the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days where some infected persons can be contagious, this can mean that airport virus checks may give a false negative result, which is why the hated 14 day quarantine period has been evoked.

One small sign of hope though is that most of these "secondary" outbreaks have been clamped down on quickly.

Cheers
Guy

[BushInn1746]

BBC Midlands Today at 6.30pm this evening 17 June 2020 were reporting 20 more at Nuneaton, Warwickshire admitted to Hospital in 24hrs.

Thirty Covid cases in the George Eliot Hospital increases to 50 in 24 hours.

Rugby Hospital had no Covid patients.

Councillor Keith Kondakor - Green, Nuneaton (featured on Midlands Today) claims online 3 Covid deaths today at the hospital, making 5 in three days.

I was extremely surprised local Public Health were playing it down and didn't even know postcodes in the BBC Interview, but it was claimed the NHS had already ordered an investigation into the sudden increase.