Just over a week ago, there was a report on the first week of operation of Test and trace system
28 May to 3 June inc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53006938We were told about 8000 people had their cases referred to the contact tracing team. Of those about two thirds had been reached (assuming exactly 8000 originally this would be 5333 people). This group provided contact details of those people they had been in close contact with. The figure given was "more than 31,000". That's an average of more than 5 per person. The contact tracers had been unable to contact 15% of those 31,000 plus people. Actual figures were then quoted of 4809 contacts not able to be reached and 26985 contacts were reached supporting the 15% figure, and making a total of 31794.
Yesterday the report of the second week was published, with cumulative totals from the previous week.
5949 people were referred to contact tracers in week 2, 14045 cumulative which gives 8096 for week 1, which agrees with the approx figure presented previously.
of those 5949 people, 4366 were reached (73%) and asked to provide contacts. Cumulative is 10192, making 5826 reached in week 1. Somewhat higher than reported in the previous report (two thirds which would be 5333 based on 8000 and 5397 based on 8096).
44895 close contacts were identified by 4366 people in week 2. Cumulative:96746
This means that there were 51851 close contacts identified in week 1, quite considerably higher than the 31794 quoted by Baroness Harding after week 1. Seems rather a large discrepancy
This means that in week 2, on average each infected person had over 10 close contacts and in week 1, the average now calculates at almost 9 instead of just over 5.
Of those close contacts able to be reached, Week 2 was 40690, cumulative 87639, making week 1 total 46949. Hardly the 26985 quoted by Baroness Harding after week 1. But it does push up the % contacted from 85% to 91%, so that's good.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893411/2020-06-18_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_with_Annex.pdfPages 6 and 7
I am very worried on several counts:
How can there be such a discrepancy in the week 1 figures?
Why is the average number of close contacts per person so high? (close being less than 2 metres for 15 minutes or more). Has social distancing been completely abandoned?
The huge number of people out and about who don't know they might be at risk, either because an infected person couldn't be reached or declined to give details of contacts, or they themselves couldn't be reached
The number of cases reported daily does not seem to tally with the number of cases referred to contact tracing teams. The total of cases reported on 28 May to 3rd June inc was 12616, but only 8096 traced. And for 4th June to 10th June inc total was 10287 and only 5949 traced. Around 4000 short in both weeks.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/