"Back to normal by Christmas"

[LizzieL]

Say both the Telegraph and the Express - so it must be true

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-53453086

[dowdstree]

Read about this and saw it on the telly. My question is "What is normal ?"

A lot will depend on whether or not there are any major outbreaks of the virus between now and then.

It would be wonderful if we could have Christmas with our family without any Social Distancing.

Dorrie

[groom]

Listening to the news, the Government's Advisors are saying it needs to be made clear that it will only happen if people are sensible and follow the rules, so hopefully avoiding new outbreaks in the Autumn.

I think it's a very dangerous statement to say we'll be back to normal by then, of course everyone hopes that will be the case, but no one knows for sure. If the worst happens, people are going to be very reluctant to go back into lockdown, having been promised freedom. I think a cautious approach needs to be taken.

They have now paused issuing daily death figures as they think they have been calculated incorrectly! 

[sugarfizzle]

Yesterday Boris said that we would plan for the worst, but hope for the best.

His best case scenario was almost back to normal by November, and hopefully by Christmas.

I think that is what the papers have picked up on. Plenty of people have doubts about that, but we are allowed in each other's houses already. Christmas could work out ok, even with social distancing. Not quite the same, but then, nothing is.

Regards Margaret

[LizzieL]

The papers print what people want to see because that's what sells paper. "Best case scenario" and Caution" are buried in the small print.
Like all the other dates for phases of lockdown easing, so many people see these dates as written in stone. Not targets with conditions attached.

Numbers of new cases seem to be creeping up again - unless that is another change in the way things are counted in the last four days.

[groom]

Numbers of new cases seem to be creeping up again - unless that is another change in the way things are counted in the last four days.

Apparently we have been counting deaths incorrectly in England!   According to one report anyone who has ever tested positive and later dies, has Covid put on their certificate so, “It turns out you could have been tested positive in February, recovered, then get hit by a bus in July and you’d be recorded as a covid death.” The other 3 countries of the UK only put it if a death occurs within 28 days, which makes far more sense.

[LizzieL]

Numbers of new cases seem to be creeping up again - unless that is another change in the way things are counted in the last four days.

Apparently we have been counting deaths incorrectly in England!   According to one report anyone who has ever tested positive and later dies, has Covid put on their certificate so, “It turns out you could have been tested positive in February, recovered, then get hit by a bus in July and you’d be recorded as a covid death.” The other 3 countries of the UK only put it if a death occurs within 28 days, which makes far more sense.

I understand that with deaths. But I was talking about confirmed new cases
14th July 398
15th July 538
16th July 641
17th July 687

The commonly quoted R number for UK is 0.7 - 0.9, but it's largely Scotland holding it down. Two regions in England ( London and the South West) have a range which takes it over 1.

[mrsruz]

Pigs might fly. I live in Menorca, where we had no confirmed cases for around 6 weeks. The island was opened to tourists at the beginning of July & suddenly we have several new cases in the hospital here & others in isolation at home.

[IgorStrav]

Numbers of new cases seem to be creeping up again - unless that is another change in the way things are counted in the last four days.

Apparently we have been counting deaths incorrectly in England!   According to one report anyone who has ever tested positive and later dies, has Covid put on their certificate so, “It turns out you could have been tested positive in February, recovered, then get hit by a bus in July and you’d be recorded as a covid death.” The other 3 countries of the UK only put it if a death occurs within 28 days, which makes far more sense.

The way of counting deaths has always been via excess deaths over the five year average.