Author Topic: A no win situation?  (Read 1208 times)

Offline Biggles50

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A no win situation?
« on: Friday 18 September 20 16:32 BST (UK) »
Its Friday the 18th September and the daily figure is now at 3395 new cases and the trend is upwards along a very similar slope to the original outbreak when it peaked at about 5000.

Being an oldie we have been and will continue to be very careful and avoid all contact which is particularly hard with a Daughter and two Grandkids.

I have had one trip into Town to pay in an old cheque before it expired and there were not many people around and what there were seemed to be following social distances guidelines. 

I have had one visit into our local Tesco Express in three months and only when it was late and hence quiet.

When out walking our Dog the vast majority keep the social distance but that is not always the case with cyclists, and the young not keeping their distance but if we see them coming we just move well away.

Yet we see on TV and read online that the rates are going up and people doing stupid things like the Teachers in Bacup going to a Party and getting infected and then taking it back to the Primary School.

Whenever they show groups of teens and twenties on TV they never seem to adhere to social distancing.

Some Pubs try others do not give a damn, my own local does seem to be one of those that tries to keep to the rules.

Government continues to give guidance that is conflicting with the I will be OK attitude of the younger generations.

Yes we need to kick start the economy and to get things to as near to normal as they can be but I for one have zero idea of how this can be achieved.
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Lancashire:-Lamb, Gorst, Hardman, Threlfall, Lawson
Westmoreland/Cumberland:-Bush, Strickland, Chamber(s), Hedwen/Hadwin, Carleton
Monmouthshire:-Evans, Jones
Yorkshire:-Collins, Thompson, Darnborough, Drummer, Raistrick, Ewbank, Holdsworth, Clark
Herefordshire:-Ruck, Williams, Jones, Meadmore, Goode, Berrington.
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Offline Gadget

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #1 on: Friday 18 September 20 16:48 BST (UK) »
Its Friday the 18th September and the daily figure is now at 3395 new cases


The figure is 4322 new cases not 3395.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
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Offline Pheno

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #2 on: Friday 18 September 20 16:57 BST (UK) »
I am a bit unclear as to how the death figure is arrived at.  I know that now it relates to those who had a positive test in the previous 28 days.

However, does the death certificate need to mention covid as a cause of death or could it be someone killed in a car crash, say 21 days after a positive test?

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Offline Rena

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #3 on: Friday 18 September 20 17:04 BST (UK) »
I live near Bacup and I can't imagine primary school teachers when I was young, with their ears covered by coils of hair, would do anything so stupid.

"Eight members of staff at Bacup Holy Trinity Stacksteads CE Primary School have contracted Covid-19 since the party on 5 September, John Aspin said.
Another three, who did not attend, have since been infected and the whole school has now had to close.
Staff "jeopardised hard work" to keep the school safe, Mr Aspin said."
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Offline Jomot

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #4 on: Friday 18 September 20 20:58 BST (UK) »
I am a bit unclear as to how the death figure is arrived at.  I know that now it relates to those who had a positive test in the previous 28 days.

However, does the death certificate need to mention covid as a cause of death or could it be someone killed in a car crash, say 21 days after a positive test?

My understanding is that yes, they would be counted in the figures.  You do not need to have died 'of' it - anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive test is a covid victim, regardless of whether they were symptomatic, and even if they were in end-of-life care for some other terminal illness.
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Offline Pheno

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #5 on: Friday 18 September 20 21:03 BST (UK) »
Thanks Jomot, but that makes the figures very misleading doesn't it although granted there will not be a lot of people in the scenario above.

I wonder if the criteria is that if you die within 28 days of a positive test, regardless of the actual cause, covid has to be entered as one of the contributory factors and that is why accident victims are counted.

Otherwise it seems a very skewed picture.

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Offline LizzieL

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #6 on: Saturday 19 September 20 11:34 BST (UK) »
On the other hand, if someone tests positive and is in hospital on a ventilator for more than 28 days then sadly dies after 5 or 6 weeks, they wouldn't be counted under that criterion, even though the cause was clearly Covid.
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Offline Biggles50

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #7 on: Saturday 19 September 20 11:45 BST (UK) »
Bolton has just seen a jump in their infection rate to 200 per 100,000 according to Bolton.gov.uk

I live 20 minutes from Bolton and the infection rate for my City is 140 (it has been going up daily) but drilling down into the statistics in the area where I live the rate seems to be only 60.  Standing back and looking at the areas included in the statistics no doubt has skewed the figures as it includes a large rural section.  We are not in a densely populated area and hence social distancing is easier to maintain.

What is the old saying?

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Col
Lancashire:-Lamb, Gorst, Hardman, Threlfall, Lawson
Westmoreland/Cumberland:-Bush, Strickland, Chamber(s), Hedwen/Hadwin, Carleton
Monmouthshire:-Evans, Jones
Yorkshire:-Collins, Thompson, Darnborough, Drummer, Raistrick, Ewbank, Holdsworth, Clark
Herefordshire:-Ruck, Williams, Jones, Meadmore, Goode, Berrington.
Cheshire:-Ainsworth, Hayes, Norcot, Lowe, Duncalf, Lightfoot, Percival, Newton.
Ireland:-Brazell, Curwen/Curren/Curran/Corn
Canada:-Thompson, Sanderson, Hysop, Beaton, Staniforth

Offline LizzieL

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #8 on: Saturday 19 September 20 11:49 BST (UK) »
Bolton has just seen a jump in their infection rate to 200 per 100,000 according to Bolton.gov.uk

I live 20 minutes from Bolton and the infection rate for my City is 140 (it has been going up daily) but drilling down into the statistics in the area where I live the rate seems to be only 60.  Standing back and looking at the areas included in the statistics no doubt has skewed the figures as it includes a large rural section.  We are not in a densely populated area and hence social distancing is easier to maintain.

What is the old saying?

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353
Berks / Oxon: Eltham, Annetts, Wiltshire (surname not county), Hawkins, Pembroke, Partridge
Dorset / Hants: Derham, Stride, Purkiss, Scott, Sibley
Yorkshire: Pottage, Carr, Blackburn, Depledge
Sussex: Goodyer, Christopher, Trevatt
Jersey: Fowler, Huelin, Scott
Essex/Herts: Livermore, Holgate, Law, Day, Myson, Boyton
Norfolk/Suffolk: Stone, Alexander, Tipple, Ingate