Author Topic: A no win situation?  (Read 1210 times)

Offline Biggles50

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #9 on: Saturday 19 September 20 11:56 BST (UK) »
Bolton has just seen a jump in their infection rate to 200 per 100,000 according to Bolton.gov.uk

I live 20 minutes from Bolton and the infection rate for my City is 140 (it has been going up daily) but drilling down into the statistics in the area where I live the rate seems to be only 60.  Standing back and looking at the areas included in the statistics no doubt has skewed the figures as it includes a large rural section.  We are not in a densely populated area and hence social distancing is easier to maintain.

What is the old saying?

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353

Stupid is as stupid does.
Col
Lancashire:-Lamb, Gorst, Hardman, Threlfall, Lawson
Westmoreland/Cumberland:-Bush, Strickland, Chamber(s), Hedwen/Hadwin, Carleton
Monmouthshire:-Evans, Jones
Yorkshire:-Collins, Thompson, Darnborough, Drummer, Raistrick, Ewbank, Holdsworth, Clark
Herefordshire:-Ruck, Williams, Jones, Meadmore, Goode, Berrington.
Cheshire:-Ainsworth, Hayes, Norcot, Lowe, Duncalf, Lightfoot, Percival, Newton.
Ireland:-Brazell, Curwen/Curren/Curran/Corn
Canada:-Thompson, Sanderson, Hysop, Beaton, Staniforth

Online Pheno

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #10 on: Saturday 19 September 20 12:30 BST (UK) »
On the other hand, if someone tests positive and is in hospital on a ventilator for more than 28 days then sadly dies after 5 or 6 weeks, they wouldn't be counted under that criterion, even though the cause was clearly Covid.

But wouldn't someone in hospital on a ventilator be constantly tested to see if the virus had left their system, so would likely still be within a 28 day test period.

Just not sure what to make of the death statistics really.

Pheno
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Offline Mike in Cumbria

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #11 on: Saturday 19 September 20 17:33 BST (UK) »

But wouldn't someone in hospital on a ventilator be constantly tested to see if the virus had left their system, so would likely still be within a 28 day test period.

No, once they've had a positive diagnosis, there would be little point in testing again.

Just not sure what to make of the death statistics really.

Pheno

Just treat them for what they are - a proxy for the actual figure. It doesn't really matter which method is used, ie deaths within so many days of a positive diagnosis, or deaths that mention COVID19 on the certificate - any metric will have anomalies and flaws. Its the trends in the data that matter. In the same way, the actual number of deaths within any time period isn't the most important statistic - it is the direction of travel.
"No vegetable grows in vain.."


Offline Biggles50

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #12 on: Saturday 19 September 20 18:16 BST (UK) »
On the other hand, if someone tests positive and is in hospital on a ventilator for more than 28 days then sadly dies after 5 or 6 weeks, they wouldn't be counted under that criterion, even though the cause was clearly Covid.

But wouldn't someone in hospital on a ventilator be constantly tested to see if the virus had left their system, so would likely still be within a 28 day test period.

Just not sure what to make of the death statistics really.

Pheno

A viral infection does not work that way, you body develops antibodies to fight the infection and the antibodies stay in you system to give you varying degrees on immunity.

By allowing a controlled spread of the virus more and more people get it and a herd immunity develops.

As for ventilators they are life saving for sure or rather life prolonging may well be a better term.  If a patient on a ventilator does not respond then a decision would need to be made on continuing to ventilate as prolonged ventilation leads to issues with other internal organs.  3-4 weeks was a typical max ventilation period in my NHS days but this ipwas very much dependent upon patient response.
Col
Lancashire:-Lamb, Gorst, Hardman, Threlfall, Lawson
Westmoreland/Cumberland:-Bush, Strickland, Chamber(s), Hedwen/Hadwin, Carleton
Monmouthshire:-Evans, Jones
Yorkshire:-Collins, Thompson, Darnborough, Drummer, Raistrick, Ewbank, Holdsworth, Clark
Herefordshire:-Ruck, Williams, Jones, Meadmore, Goode, Berrington.
Cheshire:-Ainsworth, Hayes, Norcot, Lowe, Duncalf, Lightfoot, Percival, Newton.
Ireland:-Brazell, Curwen/Curren/Curran/Corn
Canada:-Thompson, Sanderson, Hysop, Beaton, Staniforth

Offline BushInn1746

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #13 on: Saturday 19 September 20 20:20 BST (UK) »
Extracted from NHS Imperial
PCR Testing to inform our clinical pathways
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/blog/developing-a-covid-19-testing-strategy

 ... "We will, of course, also need to continue to care for patients who are definitely positive for coronavirus in single rooms or in 'cohorted' wards if necessary. A comprehensive and regular testing programme is essential to making this work."
 ----------
My Mum in her 80s has been in hospital as an inpatient after breaking her arm and needed 2 operations and recovery after care (she was non-covid), but tested on admission, tested again during her stay and then tested again before she could be released home.
 ----------
Added:
WHO
The incubation period for COVID-19, which is the time between exposure to the virus (becoming infected) and symptom onset, is on average 5-6 days, however can be up to 14 days. During this period, also known as the “pre- symptomatic” period, some infected persons can be contagious.
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Generally, it seems the NHS appear to have a massive inpatient Covid-19 testing & record keeping regime. At our local hospital a few Covid-19 have been thought to have Hospital Acquired the infection (Hospital investigation).

I hear at one hospital Staff are also being tested every 2 weeks.
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I went for a scan at the end of Lockdown as an Outpatient and only answered 3 questions.

Mark

Offline BushInn1746

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #14 on: Sunday 20 September 20 06:59 BST (UK) »
Coronavirus
Generally it seems if you test negative on admission to hospital as an inpatient you will be tested on admission and then after 5 to 7 days.

A 3rd time on release if you are being released:-
to a Care Home
to a Hospice
home with a package of care
https://www.uhb.nhs.uk/coronavirus-staff/inpatient-testing-protocol.htm

That is how my mum was tested three times for Covid when released home from an NHS Hospital, so I don't know the answer if you test positive as an NHS inpatient on admission to hospital.

You'll also be tested at any time if you develop symptons in hospital.
 -----------
You might find the answer here regarding those positive inpatients

NHS 24 June 2020
Healthcare associated COVID-19 infections – further action
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/06/Healthcare-associated-COVID-19-infections--further-action-24-June-2020.pdf

Mark

Offline pharmaT

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #15 on: Monday 21 September 20 13:22 BST (UK) »
On the other hand, if someone tests positive and is in hospital on a ventilator for more than 28 days then sadly dies after 5 or 6 weeks, they wouldn't be counted under that criterion, even though the cause was clearly Covid.

But wouldn't someone in hospital on a ventilator be constantly tested to see if the virus had left their system, so would likely still be within a 28 day test period.

Just not sure what to make of the death statistics really.

Pheno

A viral infection does not work that way, you body develops antibodies to fight the infection and the antibodies stay in you system to give you varying degrees on immunity.

By allowing a controlled spread of the virus more and more people get it and a herd immunity develops.

As for ventilators they are life saving for sure or rather life prolonging may well be a better term.  If a patient on a ventilator does not respond then a decision would need to be made on continuing to ventilate as prolonged ventilation leads to issues with other internal organs.  3-4 weeks was a typical max ventilation period in my NHS days but this ipwas very much dependent upon patient response.

People have died more than 28 days after their positive test.  It has been rare for someone to require ventilation on day one of their illness.  We found on average people had been unwell for about a week before hospitalisation and those ventilated often put on a ventilators a few days after admission as their condition progressed.  I have seen people on a ventilator for a few weeks, be successfully stepped down then sadly taken a turn for the worse. 
Campbell, Dunn, Dickson, Fell, Forest, Norie, Pratt, Somerville, Thompson, Tyler among others

Offline Rishile

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #16 on: Monday 21 September 20 15:47 BST (UK) »
Can anyone tell me if hospitalisation works in the same way as the death figures.  i.e. If someone tests positive for COVID-19 and is then hospitalised within 28 days for something totally different like a car accident or ingrowing toenail, does that count towards the totals?

Rishile
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Offline pharmaT

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Re: A no win situation?
« Reply #17 on: Monday 21 September 20 16:06 BST (UK) »
In Scotland it is people in hospital who actively have the corona virus, no matter reason for admission as they will be being treated under full respiratory barrier procedures.  The odds of someone with active covid being in hospital and not at least being treated for it are slim although they may have another condition such as a broken bone.  The effects of covid on the body would impair healing.
Campbell, Dunn, Dickson, Fell, Forest, Norie, Pratt, Somerville, Thompson, Tyler among others