Author Topic: Herd Immunity  (Read 1105 times)

Offline BushInn1746

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #9 on: Friday 16 October 20 09:41 BST (UK) »

The Lancet 12th October 2020

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext

"Thus, reinfection cases tell us that we cannot rely on immunity acquired by natural infection to confer herd immunity; not only is this strategy lethal for many but also it is not effective."

Offline Guy Etchells

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #10 on: Friday 16 October 20 10:03 BST (UK) »

The Lancet 12th October 2020

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext

"Thus, reinfection cases tell us that we cannot rely on immunity acquired by natural infection to confer herd immunity; not only is this strategy lethal for many but also it is not effective."

Very selective quoting, missing out the opinion "For now, one vaccine will be sufficient to confer protection against all circulating variants." and possibly more importantly "Herd immunity requires safe and effective vaccines and robust vaccination implementation."
In other words the research shows vaccines work and protect but natural transmission of the virus may not trigger enough reaction in the body to create an immune response.
Cheers
Guy
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Offline BushInn1746

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #11 on: Friday 16 October 20 12:19 BST (UK) »

The Lancet 12th October 2020

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext

"Thus, reinfection cases tell us that we cannot rely on immunity acquired by natural infection to confer herd immunity; not only is this strategy lethal for many but also it is not effective."

Very selective quoting, missing out the opinion "For now, one vaccine will be sufficient to confer protection against all circulating variants." and possibly more importantly "Herd immunity requires safe and effective vaccines and robust vaccination implementation."
In other words the research shows vaccines work and protect but natural transmission of the virus may not trigger enough reaction in the body to create an immune response.
Cheers
Guy

Around the 3rd week of September 2020 those on the vaccine trial in England were just about to be exposed to Covid-19. Vaccine development here is ongoing.

Tested with Healthy Volunteers

"Phases one and two of the clinical trial took place simultaneously in April in southern England, when safety and immune responses were checked in more than a thousand healthy volunteers ages 18 to 55."
https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/07/oxford-vaccine-enters-final-phase-of-covid-19-trials-heres-what

"Participants must NOT: Have tested positive for COVID-19, be pregnant, intending to become pregnant, or breastfeeding during the study, or have previously taken part in a trial with an adenoviral vaccine or received any other coronavirus vaccines."
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-04-23-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begins-human-trial-stage

"The purpose of this study is to test a new vaccine against COVID-19 in healthy volunteers."
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-22-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begin-phase-iiiii-human-trials


Offline Maiden Stone

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #12 on: Friday 16 October 20 15:44 BST (UK) »
For herd immunity 70-80% of the population would have to be immune, although preferably more.  That's why vaccines are generally considered the only safe way to achieve this.  As Rena says there is a good chance that any immunity is not long lasting, although it could be a situation like rubella when a proportion of the population never achieve immunity but others can.

The minority of people opposed to vaccination of children for infectious diseases like rubella can only safely make that choice when herd immunity exists due to the vast majority of parents getting their children vaccinated. Herd immunity is at risk if that minority grows. 
Cowban

Offline Kiltpin

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #13 on: Friday 16 October 20 16:06 BST (UK) »
For reasons which are not completely understood, there is a very large anti-vax movement in Italy. So much so that the Government was worried about the health of the children in state schools. 

So with no fanfare nor forewarning they passed a law requiring all children in state schools to be up to date with their immunisations. Parents were given 28 days (I think) to register the certificates with the school and get vaccinations that were needed. 

Those who missed the deadline were excluded from school till they either got vaccinated, or were registered in a private (expensive) school. 

Parents were given the freedom of choice. If they truly believed in the anti-vax movement, they could remove their children and pay. 

An elegant compromise I think. 

Regards 

Chas
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Offline Rena

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #14 on: Friday 16 October 20 18:48 BST (UK) »
There is also a (c) Long Covid. Where someone contracts covid, it goes through its cycle and then goes into hibernation. It then comes back (not as strongly) a while later.   

Roll on a vaccine. 

Regards 

Chas

That's what used to regularly happen to my late OH and many thousands of men.   When he was in HM forces in the 1950s he and his mates in the middle east caught a virulent strain of malaria and even thirty years later would still have days of weakness, shivering in bed.  Luckily a p;ill emerged to cure the "long malaria"
Aberdeen: Findlay-Shirras,McCarthy<br />MidLothian: Mason,Telford,Darling,Cruikshanks,Bennett,Sime, Bell<br />Lanarks:Crum, Brown, MacKenzie,Cameron, Glen, Millar
Ross, Urray:Mackenzie<br />Moray: Findlay; Marshall/Marischell<br />Perthshire: Brown Ferguson<br />Wales: McCarthy, Thomas<br />England: Almond, Askin, Dodson, Harrison, Maw, McCarthy, Munford, Pye, Shearing, Smith, Smythe, Speight, Strike, Wallis/Wallace, Ward, Wells<br />Germany: Flamme,Ehlers, Bielstein, Germer, Mohlm, Reupke

Offline Llwyd

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #15 on: Friday 16 October 20 19:20 BST (UK) »
In 1945 my dad, prior to being despatched to Norway to help deal with German POWs, declined to have his vaccinations. This fact is recorded on his military record, in all at least four places.
Let's hope a vaccination is not too far off, even one which will at the very least mitigate the most severe effects of this virus.
 :)
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Offline DianaCanada

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #16 on: Saturday 17 October 20 14:00 BST (UK) »
There has been studies on the connection of the BCG vaccinations against TB helping fight Covid-19 in people who are exposed to it.  This refers to those who were vaccinated in the past. I felt good as I read that, as I had them as a child, and if memory serves, a booster as a teen.  Unfortunately I then read that blood type A are more susceptible...my type 😒.
Time will tell what all this means, interesting to see what scientists will conclude in 5 or 10 years.

Offline Guy Etchells

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Re: Herd Immunity
« Reply #17 on: Saturday 17 October 20 14:26 BST (UK) »
There has been studies on the connection of the BCG vaccinations against TB helping fight Covid-19 in people who are exposed to it.  This refers to those who were vaccinated in the past. I felt good as I read that, as I had them as a child, and if memory serves, a booster as a teen.  Unfortunately I then read that blood type A are more susceptible...my type 😒.
Time will tell what all this means, interesting to see what scientists will conclude in 5 or 10 years.

It seems the BCG vaccine shows good results for those vaccinated early in life (infants) rather than those vaccinated around 11 to teens (UK children), these seem to have missed the optimal time.
If you were vaccinated in Canada early in life you may have some protection against the worst effects of covid. There is still research being carried out on this.
Cheers
Guy
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