Author Topic: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK  (Read 3158 times)

Offline Gadget

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #27 on: Saturday 05 June 21 09:21 BST (UK) »
I'm 100% with you, mowsehowse

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Offline Nick_Ips

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #28 on: Saturday 05 June 21 09:37 BST (UK) »
IMO, if open borders, pitiful quarantine measures and lax tracing had been controlled effectively since January 2020, the rest might be more easily controlled.

You only have to cast an eye over what has been happening elsewhere in the World to see that is fanciful nonsense.

Australia has some of the toughest restrictions in the World, to the extent that it has on occasion banned its own citizens from coming home, yet still Covid manages to find a way of getting out into the community....
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/05/victoria-records-five-new-covid-cases-as-state-battles-outbreak-into-second-week-of-lockdown

Restrictions of the kind Australia has adopted would be unacceptable to the UK population, where we have actively promoted migration and freedom of movement for decades and now have a situation where it is considered a basic human right for people to be able to travel freely to see family elsewhere in the World.

And as for "January 2020" - nobody then had a clue that Covid could spread so easily and asymptomatically*.  So the idea you could impose tough restrictions then, against a disease nobody thought would be such a problem, ignores the very real issue that people will only accept restrictions on their lives if they can see there is a need for them.

You would also have been going against the advice of the WHO (and the EU) who were saying that borders shouldn't be closed long after it was clear to the average person that some restriction on travel was needed.

Quote
* "The evidence we have is that there does not appear to be widespread community transmission."
WHO Director-General
27 February 2020

Offline Mowsehowse

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #29 on: Saturday 05 June 21 10:31 BST (UK) »
QUOTE "And as for "January 2020" - nobody then had a clue that Covid could spread so easily and asymptomatically*.  So the idea you could impose tough restrictions then, against a disease nobody thought would be such a problem, ignores the very real issue that people will only accept restrictions on their lives if they can see there is a need for them."

Now that IS pure and blatant ridicule!

My husband and I were on holiday in Seville for new year 2020, where we heard on the news about virus issues in China and worrying pockets around the globe.
Then on our return we learned that a young lady had returned from her Uni year in China, to have xmas with parents, (resident on our complex,) and grandparents before going back to her uni halls of residence, and lectures. Her brother also returned by public transport to London for his apprenticeship place.
At the same time, hundreds of other University students had dispersed from China, going to their homes all over Europe, for the holidays.
At that point in the first few days of January it was apparent to me that the situation was highly dynamic, and that strict measures were necessary.

In February my husband tutored a child who had returned to school after a skiing trip to Italy, and one of his class + mother, had become ill with Covid virus symptoms.
Shortly afterwards an Italian video circulated exhorting Uk to be more vigilant and not to suffer in the same way Italy was suffering.
Strict measures were implemented in New Zealand (e.g.) but have not yet, been deemed necessary in Uk, where "herd immunity" was thought to have been a fine plan! 
To date, 127,823 admitted covid related deaths in Uk, suggests our policy, thus far, has not been entirely successful.
BTW, Woohan imposed lockdown on 23rd January!
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Offline Nick_Ips

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #30 on: Saturday 05 June 21 11:14 BST (UK) »
Now that IS pure and blatant ridicule!

My husband and I were on holiday in Seville for new year 2020, where we heard on the news about virus issues in China and worrying pockets around the globe.

...

At that point in the first few days of January it was apparent to me that the situation was highly dynamic, and that strict measures were necessary. [bolding added/amended by me]


The first recorded case outside of China wasn't reported until 13 January 2020
https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

And as late as 5th January 2020 WHO reported cases of "Pneumonia of unknown cause" in Wuhan.

"The causal agent has not yet been identified or confirmed."
https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/

It would have been quite remarkable if the media in Seville had been able to confirm the cause was a virus, and that it had spread to pockets around the globe, weeks before it actually happened.


Strict measures were implemented in New Zealand (e.g.) but have not yet, been deemed necessary in Uk, where "herd immunity" was thought to have been a fine plan! 
To date, 127,823 admitted covid related deaths in Uk, suggests our policy, thus far, has not been entirely successful.

3,710,000 "admitted" Covid deaths around the World suggests that nobody has found a policy which is "entirely successful".

"Herd immunity" was the best plan there was, until the mortality rate (and the level of asymptomatic transmission) of the variant arriving in the UK from Italy, Spain and France was better understood. It wasn't the same as the original disease in China, on which much of the initial thinking had been based.

New Zealand "closed its borders to any foreigners arriving from China" (i.e. not applying to NZ nationals, or other people traveling from places other than China) as late as 3 Feb 2020.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-outbreak-new-zealand-bans-foreign-travellers-from-china


Offline majm

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #31 on: Saturday 05 June 21 11:45 BST (UK) »
Sorry  for long quote.  I am on e-reader.  I am in NSW, Australia.  My January 21, 2020 diary note reads:

3 a.m. phone call. Sis in panic,  needs 4k to get the lad home from Spain now.  There's a pandemic in Seville.  I ph him. Yes, like Spanish Flu in history. I send $8k. 

So I know, first hand, that many English speaking tourists in Spain were well and truly aware by mid January 2020 so I do NOT doubt mowsehowse and early January 2020 reports...

JM


QUOTE "And as for "January 2020" - nobody then had a clue that Covid could spread so easily and asymptomatically*.  So the idea you could impose tough restrictions then, against a disease nobody thought would be such a problem, ignores the very real issue that people will only accept restrictions on their lives if they can see there is a need for them."

Now that IS pure and blatant ridicule!

My husband and I were on holiday in Seville for new year 2020, where we heard on the news about virus issues in China and worrying pockets around the globe.
Then on our return we learned that a young lady had returned from her Uni year in China, to have xmas with parents, (resident on our complex,) and grandparents before going back to her uni halls of residence, and lectures. Her brother also returned by public transport to London for his apprenticeship place.
At the same time, hundreds of other University students had dispersed from China, going to their homes all over Europe, for the holidays.
At that point in the first few days of January it was apparent to me that the situation was highly dynamic, and that strict measures were necessary.

In February my husband tutored a child who had returned to school after a skiing trip to Italy, and one of his class + mother, had become ill with Covid virus symptoms.
Shortly afterwards an Italian video circulated exhorting Uk to be more vigilant and not to suffer in the same way Italy was suffering.
Strict measures were implemented in New Zealand (e.g.) but have not yet, been deemed necessary in Uk, where "herd immunity" was thought to have been a fine plan! 
To date, 127,823 admitted covid related deaths in Uk, suggests our policy, thus far, has not been entirely successful.
BTW, Woohan imposed lockdown on 23rd January!
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Offline groom

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #32 on: Saturday 05 June 21 11:59 BST (UK) »
Quote
now have a situation where it is considered a basic human right for people to be able to travel freely to see family elsewhere in the World.

So what about the basic human rights of people to be kept safe from those who are selfish enough to think they can do as they want and travel anywhere?

I'm fed up with all those people complaining that they can't go on holiday or who had to cut short their holiday. If you are prepared to go abroad then you should also be prepared to quarantine when you get back. My sister has cancelled their family holiday for the second year, this one carried over from last year. They decided there was no point going if they had wear a mask almost from the time they left home until they got to the destination. Then there was no guarantee that everywhere would be open. 
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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #33 on: Saturday 05 June 21 13:06 BST (UK) »
Quiite obviously, border restrictions DO work!

NZ, Australia, Singapore, Guernsey and Isle of Man (to name a few) have all had success in keeping Covid at bay, with varying degrees of success.

Meanwhile, the UK, and England in articular, have one of the highest death rates in the world.
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Offline Nick_Ips

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #34 on: Sunday 06 June 21 00:48 BST (UK) »
Sorry  for long quote.  I am on e-reader.  I am in NSW, Australia.  My January 21, 2020 diary note reads

...

So I know, first hand, that many English speaking tourists in Spain were well and truly aware by mid January 2020 so I do NOT doubt mowsehowse and early January 2020 reports...

But this is a website for people with an interest in family history/genealogy.  We all know the importance of seeking facts from reliable sources, not relying on people's recollections or information passed on by others.

WHO are a reliable source (I hope we would all agree), and they say the first case outside of China was recorded on 13 January 2020 - in Thailand, not Spain.

Therefore it would have been impossible - unless WHO are lying - for anyone to be reporting "worrying pockets around the globe" as early as "the first few days of January".

Multiple sources also state that the first Covid case in Spain was identified on 31 January 2020.  It was a tourist in La Gomera, Canary Islands (not Seville).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-spain-factbox-idUSL8N2BO4TL

So I'm baffled as to what made people think there was a pandemic going on in Seville 10 days before Spain actually had its first case (900 miles away).

Offline majm

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Re: Hindsight - No Covid deaths recorded 1st June in the UK
« Reply #35 on: Sunday 06 June 21 01:09 BST (UK) »
Sorry  for long quote.  I am on e-reader.  I am in NSW, Australia.  My January 21, 2020 diary note reads

...

So I know, first hand, that many English speaking tourists in Spain were well and truly aware by mid January 2020 so I do NOT doubt mowsehowse and early January 2020 reports...

But this is a website for people with an interest in family history/genealogy.  We all know the importance of seeking facts from reliable sources, not relying on people's recollections or information passed on by others.

WHO are a reliable source (I hope we would all agree), and they say the first case outside of China was recorded on 13 January 2020 - in Thailand, not Spain.

Therefore it would have been impossible - unless WHO are lying - for anyone to be reporting "worrying pockets around the globe" as early as "the first few days of January".

Multiple sources also state that the first Covid case in Spain was identified on 31 January 2020.  It was a tourist in La Gomera, Canary Islands (not Seville).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-spain-factbox-idUSL8N2BO4TL

So I'm baffled as to what made people think there was a pandemic going on in Seville 10 days before Spain actually had its first case (900 miles away).

I am sorry you are baffled and I am sure you have researched online to gather together your cited dates.  I am not doubting your efforts, but I am supolying FIRST HAND information that supports our fellow rootschatter's own FIRST HAND experience.   

Family history focuses on primary and secondary sources.  First hand information does not need to be eliminated if it pre-dates official records,

Again,  I am sorry you are baffled.  You see, I do not see any contradiction.

JM

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