Author Topic: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England  (Read 5522 times)

Offline Rishile

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Re: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England
« Reply #54 on: Wednesday 28 July 21 18:39 BST (UK) »
Apparently the deaths have increased due to the increase in infection rates a couple of weeks ago.  It is now expected that the death rates will start to fall again.

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Offline sonofthom

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Re: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England
« Reply #55 on: Wednesday 28 July 21 18:45 BST (UK) »
Also deaths follow cases (up to 28 days after a positive test) so current death numbers reflect cases as were rather than the current reducing number of cases.
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Offline BushInn1746

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Re: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England
« Reply #56 on: Wednesday 28 July 21 18:54 BST (UK) »
Apologies - I'm thinking that I'm losing the plot somewhere!

Covid associated deaths since 19 July 2021 (taken from BBC website)

19 - 19
20 - 96 (always higher on Tuesday)
21 -73
22 - 84
23 - 64
25 - 86 Not sure what happened to 24th
26 - 14
27 - 131 (again = Tuesday)
28 - 91

Are cases really getting lower?   :-\

Is wasn't that long ago there was a thread on here about there being no deaths! Now they are nearer a 100 every day than zero.

I suppose compared to the number of cases the deaths are lower.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: technical briefing 19

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

Gives a load of official Statistics in the Tables, by Variant, how many in hospital, how many under 50, how many over 50, by vaccination status, etc., etc., in England.

Added: Sorry just noticed pdf is up to 9 July. These publications are a few weeks behind.

Offline BumbleB

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Re: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England
« Reply #57 on: Wednesday 28 July 21 20:48 BST (UK) »
Hey ho!  We'll either survive or we won't!!!  I'll still be taking care!
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Offline louisa maud

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Re: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England
« Reply #58 on: Wednesday 28 July 21 21:04 BST (UK) »
I agree BumbleB,  think  we will be ok if  we are sensible  and  take care

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Offline LizzieL

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Re: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England
« Reply #59 on: Tuesday 03 August 21 09:03 BST (UK) »
Apparently the deaths have increased due to the increase in infection rates a couple of weeks ago.  It is now expected that the death rates will start to fall again.

Rishile

The charts on the government dashboard are interesting

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

In Jan 2021, cases peaked on 1 Jan, hospital admissions around 9 Jan and deaths around 18 Jan.
First wave (April 2020) admissions peaked about 2 April and deaths about 9 April. As testing was so limited at that time, no meaningful peak in April 2020 can be determined

In this latest wave the data is showing a cases peak on 16 July, admissions peak not clearly defined but there is a slight downturn after the 26th July, and it doesn't look like we're there yet for the deaths peak.
What does stand out is how much cases must have been understated in the first wave. (The graphs can be switched to cumulative to show it better)

On the same wepsite are interactive maps which show vaccine uptake down to local authority level. In some areas the rates are very low. e.g Leeds City Centre 40.0 % first  17.5% second (up to 2nd Aug). 37.3 / 15.4 in Leeds University area. Some maybe due to demographics as the youngest age band only became eligible for first dose in mid June, but surely 6 weeks on, more should have got their first dose.
Leicester which for a long time had one of the highest infection rates has less than 50% having first dose and less than 25% having second dose in the two city centre areas. City centre and City south. Another well known hot spot, Luton, is almost the same, 49.1 / 29.6.

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Offline Gadget

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Re: Covid restrictions likely to be lifted on July 19 in England
« Reply #60 on: Tuesday 03 August 21 10:30 BST (UK) »
Check the number of tests undertaken - it's been falling ever since the schools broke up. It would be interesting to have a figure for the percentage of tests that are positive. That would be a much more meaningful figure.

The ONS ongoing study is a better indicator than the Govt daily totals. They are finding a far higher % of positives from their random samples.

Add - link to latest ONS study:

http://www.rootschat.com/links/01qt4/
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