19
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: Three wives to choose from. Which one am I related to?
« on: Monday 07 August 23 13:53 BST (UK) »
Thanks Pheno for responding.
I deliberately didn't want to give paper-trail info because it's truly irreconcilable and therefore zero help and 100% hindrance. Believe me, after 20 years every evidential avenue has been analysed to death!
The paper trail is explicitly contradictory; any conclusion using some evidence can be refuted with certainty with another piece of evidence. I've already said that the birth record cannot be true because the mother as recorded had died three years earlier. Worse, the child was born in 1853 seven months after my 2xgtgdfather married so-called wife 3 - at the address where the recently-wed couple lived. I know what you're thinking, but when wife 3 gave birth in 1855, she recorded that child as her first child. And even that wasn't true, because she had had an illeg child back in 1850. (And my interpretation of the DNA comparison concluded that she wasn't the mother anyway.)
I wanted the DNA evidence to stand by itself on its own merits. What do the various comparisons mean? If anything?
It seems ludicrous to me that, at this relatively few number of generations back, two unrelated people can have a better DNA match than two related people. My own conclusion is that we're at the level of random noise where no conclusions can be made (but then, I can't get my head around how DNA results seem to be interpreted by many). GEDmatch seems to agree by setting a default of 7Cm as the minimum below which results are not meaningful - and the comparison figure of 4.6Cm is well below that floor. But some DNA Analysis tools (like DNAPainter) assert that a figure of 0Cm is still within acceptable range; to me, this is head-over-heels logic confusing what is possible in pure mathematical theory with what is probable in actuarial reality.
So, my question is: what does the DNA evidence, and the DNA evidence alone, say?
Awaiting with interest!
To LizzieL: not as far as I'm aware and the chances are vanishingly small: 1st born Haddington; 2nd born Stirlingshire; 3rd born Ayrshire with all three families researched well back in time.
I deliberately didn't want to give paper-trail info because it's truly irreconcilable and therefore zero help and 100% hindrance. Believe me, after 20 years every evidential avenue has been analysed to death!
The paper trail is explicitly contradictory; any conclusion using some evidence can be refuted with certainty with another piece of evidence. I've already said that the birth record cannot be true because the mother as recorded had died three years earlier. Worse, the child was born in 1853 seven months after my 2xgtgdfather married so-called wife 3 - at the address where the recently-wed couple lived. I know what you're thinking, but when wife 3 gave birth in 1855, she recorded that child as her first child. And even that wasn't true, because she had had an illeg child back in 1850. (And my interpretation of the DNA comparison concluded that she wasn't the mother anyway.)
I wanted the DNA evidence to stand by itself on its own merits. What do the various comparisons mean? If anything?
It seems ludicrous to me that, at this relatively few number of generations back, two unrelated people can have a better DNA match than two related people. My own conclusion is that we're at the level of random noise where no conclusions can be made (but then, I can't get my head around how DNA results seem to be interpreted by many). GEDmatch seems to agree by setting a default of 7Cm as the minimum below which results are not meaningful - and the comparison figure of 4.6Cm is well below that floor. But some DNA Analysis tools (like DNAPainter) assert that a figure of 0Cm is still within acceptable range; to me, this is head-over-heels logic confusing what is possible in pure mathematical theory with what is probable in actuarial reality.
So, my question is: what does the DNA evidence, and the DNA evidence alone, say?
Awaiting with interest!
To LizzieL: not as far as I'm aware and the chances are vanishingly small: 1st born Haddington; 2nd born Stirlingshire; 3rd born Ayrshire with all three families researched well back in time.