Author Topic: Covid numbers  (Read 716 times)

Offline Top-of-the-hill

  • RootsChat Aristocrat
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,785
  • Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk
    • View Profile
Covid numbers
« on: Saturday 16 January 21 19:48 GMT (UK) »
   Please can someone help me make sense of the numbers for my area? I am using the Gov.co.uk website with a map of the areas. This is a rural M.S.O.A., population apparently c.5500.
  These are the numbers for 9th, 10th, 11th January.
   Total cases 52, up 21, 67.7%, rolling rate 936.4
                    50, up 22, 78.6%,                  900.4
                    41, up 9, 28.1%                     738.3 
  Apart from not understanding the numbers, does total cases actually mean positive tests each day? I am wondering now if that last one should have had a down arrow!
Pay, Kent
Codham/Coltham, Kent
Kent, Felton, Essex
Staples, Wiltshire

Offline Mike in Cumbria

  • RootsChat Marquessate
  • *******
  • Posts: 3,757
    • View Profile
Re: Covid numbers
« Reply #1 on: Saturday 16 January 21 22:54 GMT (UK) »
The first figure is the number of positive tests on that day.

Offline Gadget

  • RootsChat Marquessate
  • *******
  • Posts: 57,138
    • View Profile
Re: Covid numbers
« Reply #2 on: Saturday 16 January 21 23:12 GMT (UK) »
The third number is a standardised number* used in health data - it is the rate per 100,000 of the population. If I've got my sums right,   I make it 746.5 for the last line  cf. their 736.3. Maybe they used a different population size.

*so that comparisons can be made between areas of different population sizes.

Add - my latest local area figs are  12 cases which is 20% less than last time and standardised rate of 126.3

Newcastle is 612,  4.9 % less and standardised rate of 268.1

Census &  BMD information Crown Copyright www.nationalarchives.gov.uk and GROS - www.scotlandspeople.gov.uk

***Restorers - Please do not use my restores without my permission. Thanks***

Offline Top-of-the-hill

  • RootsChat Aristocrat
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,785
  • Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk
    • View Profile
Re: Covid numbers
« Reply #3 on: Sunday 17 January 21 14:42 GMT (UK) »
  Thanks for the confirmation that the first number is test results for the day. I had a general idea of what the rolling rate is, but I still don't understand why, in line 2, 50 cases is up 22 on the previous day's 52.
Pay, Kent
Codham/Coltham, Kent
Kent, Felton, Essex
Staples, Wiltshire


Offline Gadget

  • RootsChat Marquessate
  • *******
  • Posts: 57,138
    • View Profile
Re: Covid numbers
« Reply #4 on: Sunday 17 January 21 14:50 GMT (UK) »
If you say which area you're interested in, we could look to see what we think.
Census &  BMD information Crown Copyright www.nationalarchives.gov.uk and GROS - www.scotlandspeople.gov.uk

***Restorers - Please do not use my restores without my permission. Thanks***

Offline Gadget

  • RootsChat Marquessate
  • *******
  • Posts: 57,138
    • View Profile
Re: Covid numbers
« Reply #5 on: Sunday 17 January 21 17:53 GMT (UK) »
I think that you are taking the change as a percentage of the previous day. They are not. They actually do rolling averages and they compare the results from the previous week. Thus 11 Jan info is compared with the results from week ending 5th January. In my case  -

Seven days to 12 Jan      11 (down 4 or -26.7%) rolling rate 115,8
Seven days to  5 Jan      15 (up 4 or +36.4%) rolling rate  157.9
Seven days to 29 Dec     11 (down 6 or -35.3%) rolling rate 115.8

Add - if you use the slider bar above the box, you can roll back by week, which is how I got mine. Your change, in brackets ,for 11 Jan would be the numeric and % change from week ending 5th Jan not the previous day.
Census &  BMD information Crown Copyright www.nationalarchives.gov.uk and GROS - www.scotlandspeople.gov.uk

***Restorers - Please do not use my restores without my permission. Thanks***

Offline Top-of-the-hill

  • RootsChat Aristocrat
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,785
  • Census information Crown Copyright, from www.nationalarchives.gov.uk
    • View Profile
Re: Covid numbers
« Reply #6 on: Sunday 17 January 21 22:50 GMT (UK) »
  Thanks for that. I think I will stop obsessing about the numbers - they seem to be going down now!
Pay, Kent
Codham/Coltham, Kent
Kent, Felton, Essex
Staples, Wiltshire