Likelihood of grandfatherhood.

[1931census]

X is looking for her grandfather (her mother was illegitimate). The best candidate is 'Y'.

Match 1: Y's grandaughter, 'Ann': (potential half first cousin) - 473cM (7% shared)
Match 2: Y's brother's (W) grandson, 'Joe': (potential second cousin) - 318cM (5% shared)
Match 3: Y's brother's (W) great-grandson, 'Lee': (potential second cousin 1x removed) - 194cM (3%)
Match 4: Y's brother's (W) granddaughter, 'Rae': (potential second cousin) - 155cM (2%)
Match 5: Rae's son, 'Lou': (potential second cousin 1x removed) - 123cM (2%)
Match 6: Y's cousin's grandson, 'Don': (potential second cousin 1x removed?) - 71cM (1%)
Match 7: Don's son 'Ron': (potential second cousin 2x removed?) - 54cM (1%)

How likely is it that Y is the father? Ann only shares 253cM with Joe.

(Please do not tell me to do more research. This is as much as I have been able to do over 3 years!)

[Biggles50]

There looks to be a high probability you are right, DNA Painter gives it as 88%.

If you have built a family tree of them then you could upload it to DNA painters WATO tool, add in the cM values and generate a probability chart.

If the DNA data is also on a comparison site like Gedmatch you could use their tools to get a better idea of segment matching

[brigidmac]

It looks probable to me
Does X have any children or grandchildren who could test too?
If  you have more than one generation tested you can triangulate results

I manage 3 generations of my familys DNA and sometimes the younger generation get a stronger hit to the branch im looking at .

The fact that X has matches to more than one sibling + cousins descendants is quite conclusive .

[1931census]

It looks probable to me
Does X have any children or grandchildren who could test too?
If  you have more than one generation tested you can triangulate results

I manage 3 generations of my familys DNA and sometimes the younger generation get a stronger hit to the branch im looking at .

The fact that X has matches to more than one sibling + cousins descendants is quite conclusive .

Yes X has a daughter and granddaughter who tested. Her daughter's matches:

Ann: 216cM (3%)
Joe: 249cM (4%)
Lee: 123cM (2%)
Rae: 51cM (<1%)
Lou: 28cM (<1%)
Don: 69cM (<1%)
Ron: 61cM (<1%)

Her granddaughter's matches:

Ann: 146cM (2%)
Joe: 223cM (3%)
Lee: 96cM (1%)
Rae: 15cM (<1%)
Lou: No match
Don: 62cM (<1%)
Ron: 55cM (<1%)

[1931census]

It looks probable to me
Does X have any children or grandchildren who could test too?
If  you have more than one generation tested you can triangulate results

I manage 3 generations of my familys DNA and sometimes the younger generation get a stronger hit to the branch im looking at .

The fact that X has matches to more than one sibling + cousins descendants is quite conclusive .

Yes X has a child and grandchild who tested. Her child's matches:

Ann: 216cM (3%)
Joe: 249cM (4%)
Lee: 123cM (2%)
Rae: 51cM (<1%)
Lou: 28cM (<1%)
Don: 69cM (<1%)
Ron: 61cM (<1%)

Her grandchild's matches:

Ann: 146cM (2%)
Joe: 223cM (3%)
Lee: 96cM (1%)
Rae: 15cM (<1%)
Lou: No match
Don: 62cM (<1%)
Ron: 55cM (<1%)

[Ruskie]

Does Y have any brothers? If he does, considering other options, does it fit cM wise with the matches that one of the brothers could be the father? 

[1931census]

Does Y have any brothers? If he does, considering other options, does it fit cM wise with the matches that one of the brothers could be the father? 

Yes, thats the problem. Y has 5 brothers that were potentially of the right age, including W, the grandfather/ great-grandfather of Joe, Lee, Rae and Lou. One of the brothers had no children, and the other three do not appear to have has descendents who took DNA tests.
The only thing that pointed me towards Y is the fact that X had the closest match with his granddaughter Ann, and that Ann matched 473cM with X versus just 253cM with her confirmed second cousin Joe.

[Ruskie]

I understand that you don’t want to accuse one brother if there is a chance that another one is responsible. 

Others might have suggestions on how best to determine likelihood of one brother over the other/s.

Can you place any of the brothers in the same location as the girl when conception is likley to have taken place?

DNA is passed down randomly and although you can often get a good idea of relationships, sometimes it is not as accurate and can appear closer or more distant than expected.

Good luck with the search. You seem to be frustratingly close. I hope someone who has experience with this sort of thing can help you further.

[brigidmac]

It is difficult because cousins can share similar  Amounts to half siblings
I'm comparing with my mother's known half cousins on both sides and our 3 generations

There are Variations to mums paternal halfciR
Mt generation Match between 48-75cm but her grandson matches by116cm

I think you have to look at the segment amount too
 Mums maternal half C is a 336cm match 9seg
He matches me and my cousin exactly 192cm
7 segs +14segs
+Next generation 54cm 3segs

Your examples to W seem higher thru the generations
Isn't he more likely to be the grandfather

There are other possibilities depending on the ages of the 5 brothers could the youngest have been a son brought up by the paternal grandparents . Can you absolutely rule out that the birth father is not the generation above ie the 5 boys father that would explain the high matches to younger generation



I'm afraid that once you've narrowed it down to brothers you can't tell difference between connections to their nephews or sons to who could be X s half uncle or father .or

Only clues from location . Occupation. Opportunity and possibly  from name of the baby ..