Author Topic: Small number of cm..  (Read 633 times)

Offline dsquared

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Small number of cm..
« on: Tuesday 02 January 24 13:19 GMT (UK) »
Does anyone know how reliable DNA tests are when the cm connection is low e.g sub 15cm?

Online Biggles50

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #1 on: Tuesday 02 January 24 14:50 GMT (UK) »
What a question?  There is no Yes or No answer as there are so many aspects that can affect the cM value.

Feed 15cM into DNA Painter’s Shared Tool and there is a vast range of Probabilities presented with a 6C being statistically within the 60% probability but a 6C would mean a MRCA of 5xGGP so a long way back and one where documentation may not be available or even reliable.

The process of DNA inheritance means you could have a close “Cousin” who you share very little DNA with and by the time you get to a 3C and beyond you could then get a set of results where you share no DNA with them.

Each DNA testing company undertakes their test different than their competitors and the likes of Ancestry applies a routine to filter the results of DNA tests to give a more reliable match.

When you get below 20cM the technical limitations of the testing processes can lead to errors and below 10cM there can be “False Positive” matches actually presented.

15cM though is very possible to find where the match sits within your tree, it depends upon where the MRCA is eg a 5C shares 4xGGP’s conversely at the 15cM they could be a 7C2R and the extra generational levers would add to the difficulty.

Yet 15cM could mean a MRCA at 2xGGP level and so much easier to find and substantiate via documentation.

The image below is from a well know testing company that shows the probability of DNA being present and detected which may answer your question.


Offline dsquared

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #2 on: Tuesday 02 January 24 16:50 GMT (UK) »
Thanks you've answered my question which (although I didn't articulate it clearly) is whether you can get false positives as I wondering about that. I'm tending not to take matches below about 18-20cm too seriously unless I can see an obvious link.

Offline LizzieL

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #3 on: Tuesday 02 January 24 19:34 GMT (UK) »
I have a number of confirmed 5 - 7 Cousins with matches as low as 6 cM
Berks / Oxon: Eltham, Annetts, Wiltshire (surname not county), Hawkins, Pembroke, Partridge
Dorset / Hants: Derham, Stride, Purkiss, Sibley
Yorkshire: Pottage, Carr, Blackburn, Depledge
Sussex: Goodyer, Christopher, Trevatt
Lanark: Scott (soldier went to Jersey CI)
Jersey: Fowler, Huelin, Scott


Online Biggles50

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #4 on: Tuesday 02 January 24 21:33 GMT (UK) »
I to do have some low cM matches that I have included in my tree.

Most have been via using Ancestry’ Common Ancestors filter and triple checking each suggested person in the link pathway.  Do note that not all the hints work.

Those who do not have a tree can be very problematic and may or may not be worth the effort.

Offline phil57

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #5 on: Wednesday 03 January 24 09:41 GMT (UK) »
Whilst it is perfectly possible that some 6cM matches will be correct, and can be corroborated by alternative methods, I would never rely on a 6cM match without additional corroboration as proof of a relationship.

According to my textbooks, at a match length of 7 to 8 cM, around 50% of matches can be expected to be false (identical by chance, by population, by state etc.) So the probability of a 6cM match being genuine is slightly lower than that, i.e. it is fractionally more likely to be false.

Think of it this way: Ask 1000 people to write down a random string consisting of four numbers. Then ask another 1000 people to write down a random string consisting of 100 numbers. The chances that two or more of the random 4-digit strings may be identical by chance are much greater than for the 100 digit sequences.

Because lower DNA match lengths are shorter, the same probability applies.

As the length of a match increases, the possibility of false matches decreases. It is generally accepted that at and above lengths of 16 to 20cM, matches can be considered reliable.

Bear in mind however that many shorter matches on Ancestry are given those match lengths after application of Ancestrys' Timber algorithm, which aims to strip what the process considers to be false match lengths from  matching segments. That must decrease the possibility of some 6cM matches being false, but to what extent I don't know, and it is also possible that Timber may in some circumstances strip out genuine segments. You can check the unweighted match length for Ancestry matches at lower lengths, and if it it longer than the headline match length, it indicates that Timber has removed part of the original match. In those circumstances, the probability of the match being genuine may be slightly higher than it appears.
Stokes - London and Essex
Hodges - Somerset
Murden - Notts
Humphries/Humphreys from Montgomeryshire

Offline dsquared

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #6 on: Wednesday 03 January 24 09:51 GMT (UK) »
Thanks everyone for your thoughts. It's all been very helpful.  :)

Offline melba_schmelba

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #7 on: Wednesday 17 January 24 11:59 GMT (UK) »
Does anyone know how reliable DNA tests are when the cm connection is low e.g sub 15cm?
Can I ask which company we are talking about? It makes a big difference as to whether they are likely to be reliable or not. On Ancestry, you can also check for the unweighted figure by clicking the cM number.

Offline dsquared

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Re: Small number of cm..
« Reply #8 on: Wednesday 17 January 24 13:21 GMT (UK) »
Ancestry.  :)