Author Topic: DNA relationship prediction tools: theory and reality.  (Read 391 times)

Offline TreeDigger

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DNA relationship prediction tools: theory and reality.
« on: Friday 02 February 24 18:40 GMT (UK) »
There's some pretty nifty tools out there you can use to predict a possible relationship with a match based on the amount - either in centimorgan (cM) or percentage or both - of shared DNA. And that's very helpful in narrowing down which generation of your tree to look at in order to find your mutual 'most recent common ancestor' or MRCA.

However, many of those give you a range in which the amount of shared DNA falls, quite often covering numerous options. And I've found that, in my case, the prevailing theory often doesn't cover reality. As an example: the child of a second cousin once removed (2c1x) with whom I share 163cM, only shares 51cM with me. It took a bit of digging - she had a different last name, no public tree and was on another site - to uncover the father-daughter relationship. Predicted option #1, us being 4th cousins, was wrong, and we fell into the next lower probability category. And with my family this occurrence is a matter of rinse, repeat. Ad nauseam.

So for my own research purposes - because our predominant MRCA fathered children with two women, and it was becoming difficult to remember both who belonged where and how much DNA we shared - I made a chart of all known paternal matches so I had an overview of actual possibilities. It made and makes placing matches a whole lot easier.

And since I've gotten so much from this forum, I decided to try and do something for the community in return. So attached please find an abbreviated and anonymized version of said chart, covering the many variables of shared DNA among the descendants of several of the full and half siblings.

Hopefully you will find it useful.

(if you right-click and select 'open image in new tab' you will see the whole chart)

TD

EDIT - I accidentally attached an old chart, uploaded the newest one without errors. Sorry :/
Haycock (Liverpool, Wolverhampton, Oswestry); Rosewell (Shepperton); Wales/Whales (Thanet, Kent); Daborn (Chobham, Horsell); Prince and Powell (Liverpool area); Maxted and She(e)pwashe (Kent); Milo/Millot (France, Holland, England); genealogical research project on links to ancient Frisian aristocracy (Hofstra-Fynia-Tania). It keeps me off the streets ;)

Twenty years on this forum!

Offline crisane

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Re: DNA relationship prediction tools: theory and reality.
« Reply #1 on: Friday 02 February 24 19:40 GMT (UK) »
Thank you for taking the time to create this chart TreeDigger. I am absolutely bewildered by anything to do with DNA research so your chart joins other tools which I keep promising myself I will sit down and study in depth. Who knows one of these days the penny will drop and my illegitimate great grandfather's father will be revealed.
crisane

Online Biggles50

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Re: DNA relationship prediction tools: theory and reality.
« Reply #2 on: Friday 02 February 24 22:25 GMT (UK) »
Impressive chart.

DNA does not necessarily make life easy, sometimes it is three paces forward, then two paces back.

Offline TreeDigger

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Re: DNA relationship prediction tools: theory and reality.
« Reply #3 on: Saturday 03 February 24 09:07 GMT (UK) »
..your chart joins other tools which I keep promising myself I will sit down and study in depth.

Hope it will help ;)

Quote
Who knows one of these days the penny will drop and my illegitimate great grandfather's father will be revealed.

Oww, illegitimate?! That's basically our family's motto. I could try and help.. (no guarantees though)

@Biggles50

Quote
Impressive chart.

DNA does not necessarily make life easy, sometimes it is three paces forward, then two paces back.

Thank you. And yes. While genetic genealogy is wonderful when trying to confirm a hypothesis, it's beyond frustrating when you have scores of matches in the range of 12-50cM all pointing to the same couple with the same surname as your family, but you can't establish a link because your 2nd gr.grandfather seems to appear out of thin air. No parents, no baptism, nada. Zip.
Haycock (Liverpool, Wolverhampton, Oswestry); Rosewell (Shepperton); Wales/Whales (Thanet, Kent); Daborn (Chobham, Horsell); Prince and Powell (Liverpool area); Maxted and She(e)pwashe (Kent); Milo/Millot (France, Holland, England); genealogical research project on links to ancient Frisian aristocracy (Hofstra-Fynia-Tania). It keeps me off the streets ;)

Twenty years on this forum!


Online Biggles50

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Re: DNA relationship prediction tools: theory and reality.
« Reply #4 on: Saturday 03 February 24 11:59 GMT (UK) »
Spare a thought for the guy who had been researching his family for thirty years before he took a DNA test only for the Matches to bear no similarity to his Family Tree.

Turns out he had been adopted and his Genealogical Parents had never told him.