For those that are thinking of surname testing it is best to have a realistic view of what can be expected otherwise it can lead to disappointment.
For starters it should be noted that the nationality with the largest number of test results is American. Reasons are obviously that they have five times the population of Britain and also 25% greater GDP per capita, i.e., they have more money to spend.
The US is a melting pot from all over the world and so has a different ethnic breakdown compared to Britain. Even when you look at the part of the American population that has British origins, its breakdown is still different than that in old blighty. Whereas the largest part of the UK's populace are English, then the Scottish and finally the Welsh and Irish. American has a much larger proportion of Scottish and Irish, due to the Highland Clearances, Potato Famine, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highland_Clearanceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_%28Ireland%29When you add in the keen interest in Scottish Clans and Irish Septs that has been fuelled by tacky badge companies the result is that Scottish and Irish surname projects tend to be better represented than English or Welsh ones. This will obviously mean that if you're Scottish or Irish you will have a better chance of finding a match with your test than if you are English or Welsh.
As the English are the biggest part of Britain's population, what can they expect from joining a Surname DNA project? If we look at a project for a typical English name, say Green, we will get an idea:-
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/green/default.aspx?section=yresultsThe results are split into about 40 groups of people who have found matches which are listed in the top half, and then an "Ungrouped" section right at the bottom which lists people who have had zero matches. There are approximately 150 results in the top matched section and also 150 in the "Ungrouped" section. Most have an earliest Ancestor with a location of either the US or unknown. Ones that have a known specific British origin (i.e. with a name, date and place) are thin on the ground.
On the face of it, if a random person called "Green" were to test today they would have a 50% of finding a match. Seeing as it is likely that only a subset of British Green families emigrated to the US, the natural conclusion would be that a modern day British person of the name "Green" would have an even lower (possibly
much lower) chance of finding a match than 50%. Even if you find a match what do you find out? In most cases all you will find is that you have other members of your surname family in America, and will not find any information that can help extend your tree back in time.
Seeing as it is going to cost you $129, $208, or $308 to test (depending on whether you take the 37, 67 or 111 marker tests - note that testing 12 markers is 99.99% useless) you need to weigh up whether such odds make it worthwhile.
The same sort of picture applies to Welsh names, e.g. the Price Project:-
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/pricesurnamedna/default.aspx?section=yresultsIf we look at a Scottish Clan project it is interesting to note the difference. For example the McDonald project has 1500 test results (only about half have the McDonald name though) which makes the English/Welsh surname projects look puny:-
http://dna-project.clan-donald-usa.org/tables.htm CONCLUSIONSBy far the best chances you have of finding a match is to actually go out and find another person that has a possible link to your paper trail or has the same surname and comes from the same location as your ancestors. If you just take the test blindly though it is going to be pot luck whether you get a match or find any useful information. Although more results will slowly eke out over time it is a fact of life that many lines will die out over time so many will always remain unmatched.
