Could the Golden Age of DNA Testing Be Over?

[SouthseaSteel]

I thought the chart from Leah Larkin was interesting and certainly resonates with my experience.  Its an interesting business thats for sure!!

[Biggles50]

In time the graphs will tend to flatten.

When that will start to occur is unknown but I think we can be pretty sure that when it does the testing companies will come up with more marketing ploys.

I am firmly convinced that DNA testing is integral to validating a Family Tree, all it takes is for one Birth Registration to be a work of fiction and a whole line of a Family Tree becomes Genealogical and not a Biological line.  Those of us with an NPE in our trees are well aware of falsified Registrations.

[Wexflyer]

Big growth in dog DNA databases though.....

[SouthseaSteel]

Big growth in dog DNA databases though.....

Indeed!! How 21st Century.

Can imagine a young fresh Stanford Genetics PhD on their first day in their first job having to attend a marketing meeting on "Project Pooch"!!

[melba_schmelba]

I thought the chart from Leah Larkin was interesting and certainly resonates with my experience.  Its an interesting business thats for sure!!

Interesting to note the notable slowing when the pandemic hit. I fully expect 23andme to slow drastically if not decrease given its bad press re: the database 'hacking' (although not I think specifically hacking), but Ancestry seems to be doing OK since the pandemic ended. Possibly MyHeritage and Ancestry, even LivingDNA will all benefit from customers who would otherwise have gone to 23andme.

[farmeroman]

For me the biggest issue is the increasing numbers of new matches with no trees, a public tree consisting of 1, 2, or 3 private entries, or a completely private tree.

I don't think I've had any really important matches for a year on any of the three trees I manage.

[brigidmac]

Its definitely not over .
And even if some lines flatten the database remains + can only get bigger

Very few people remove their results

On ancestry even if a  match hasn't trees and is a distant match sometimes by looking at their surname location ethnicity & shared matches I can allocate them to a particular line and learn something useful

I recently messaged 2 people with an interesting surname   1 replied and we are comparing our shared links his mother is one of the unlinked trees brigade that I had put in a group of shared matches to another unknown
I now know the surname which links all these people

[HughC]

... the increasing numbers of new matches with no trees, a public tree consisting of 1, 2, or 3 private entries, or a completely private tree.

Let's face it, most of those who take the test want to find out their "ethnicity", although it's well known that that's just guesswork.  Probably explains why so few 'matches' reply when one approaches them.  One of those who did reply told me to mind my own business -- so quite obviously not interested in linking up with cousins.

On the whole I'm disappointed.

[coombs]

A couple of times I have seen someone else's trees on Ancestry and they have some of my ancestors on their trees with "DNA match" to my ancestors and often I send them a message hoping to make contact and get no reply yet it says they "Read" the message. Their loss. Lets hope there is an NPE on their line of descent to the said ancestor so we are not related after all.