Odd WATO Result that Seems to Require a Time Machine

[SouthseaSteel]

My brother in law Rob (b. 1964) shares 136 cM with Steve (b. 1956).  Steve is Rob's closest non identified Ancestry DNA Match although we know which of their grandparental lines they share.  I have created an extensive tree for Steve and there is clear geographical evidence of where the link belongs.  Steve does not respond to messages despite having a pretty extensive linked tree. 

I have done a WATO using 9 other shared matches who we have identified in Rob's tree.  They range in shared DNA from 21 to 56 cM.  I add that I have inputted DOBs etc as well as shared DNA amounts into the WATO.

The strongest hypothesis is for Steve, who remember is 12 years older than Rob, to be FOUR generations below Rob!! The 2nd highest hypothesis, which is 30% less likely than #1, is for him to be THREE generations below Rob - in fact, this is the main hypothesis' father.  This #2 hypothesis is 2.5 x more likely than the next most likely and the huge tail of less likely hypotheses thereafter.

Is this odd result merely the consequence of all the 9 matches inputted being somewhat distant to both parties (21 to 56 cM) or am I missing something?  I was told not to bother with matches who share less than 40 cM and this might be the reason as only 3 of these 9 matches are higher than 40 cM and one of them is 41 cM!!!

Best MTIA

[Biggles50]

WATO can and does give odd results, I have had them & the actual lineage is vastly different to any of the hypothesis offered by WATO.

Look at WATO’s own example and you will see cM’s listed at 13cM so yours should not be an issue.

If in the tree there are any who are the subject of Pedigree Collapse then the inherited DNA of those pair who are the offspring of say two second Cousin’s will be higher with the effect that the predicted relationship will be closer than it is.  This is a limitation of the whole of the DNA Painter website.

Just using DNA Painter and given the 12 years between them then the probability to me looks like they are 1/2 2C’s so Great Grandpa spread his seed and his offspring was perhaps registered as the Child of a person who was not their biological Father.

Very difficult to prove conclusively.

That said, it is always worth using WATO even if it raises more questions.

[SouthseaSteel]

Many thanks Biggles for the reassurance and the suggestion which I tend to agree with - it's so often 1/2 2C that account for NPEs etc!!!! 

The DNA Painter app can be useful in nothing more that creating a useful FT schematic that shows where all the Matches of interest sit with their weighting or importance i.e. cMs .  Just using intuition by looking at the schematic is probably just as good a way forward as any detailed analysis!! 

BTW I'm almost 100% sure there isn't any pedigree collapse for this specific match.

 

[Albufera32]

I have several examples of people who are a generation or more below me, yet were born before my mother.

I also have a 3rd cousin three times removed who was born 13 years before I was. The person in their tree who is nominally my third cousin was born in the late 1800s (I'm 1965.)

I'm the youngest of three, my mother was the youngest of four children of my grandfather's second marriage, and grandfather himself was the youngest of 13 children.

[rsel]

The strongest hypothesis is for Steve, who remember is 12 years older than Rob, to be FOUR generations below Rob!! The 2nd highest hypothesis, which is 30% less likely than #1, is for him to be THREE generations below Rob - in fact, this is the main hypothesis' father.  This #2 hypothesis is 2.5 x more likely than the next most likely and the huge tail of less likely hypotheses thereafter.

Hi,
  Quite a few of my WATO trees look a bit odd when allowing for dates. So i am not sure how much weight they put on the dates in the predictions or if they just use a very wide range for parent ages (i.e. very young and very old). The important thing is to look at the results as possibilities and then apply your own layer of common sense. I often go through a go through and delete some suggested lines if i know them to be impossible (i.e. dates are just to far out of sync with known siblings, or i know a particular family had emigrated so couldn't have been the correct line)

Richard

[SouthseaSteel]

Thanks!!!  I agree, it just one tool to add to common sense and good old analysis!!  Ive just noticed that the Hypothesis (1/2 2C) that Biggles and I subconsciously came to and the one suggested by other tools such as cM Explainer is ranked at 0.0014% of the Number 1 ranked hypothesis, namely 9 compared to 611,068!!!!  Never a dull moment in this lark!!